| AIZ |
Report |
Adjusted EPS ex-cat |
BEAT |
pred ~$5.35 vs. cons $5.16 |
MEDIUM |
| AIZ |
Report |
Global Lifestyle Adjusted EBITDA growth (YoY) |
BEAT |
pred ~+13% vs. cons ~+9% |
MEDIUM |
| AIZ |
Report |
Total revenue |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$2.63B vs. cons ~$2.60B |
MEDIUM |
| AIZ |
Guide |
FY26 underlying (ex-PYD, ex-cat) enterprise EPS/EBITDA growth |
BETTER |
guide ~high-single-digit/~8% vs. cons ~5% (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| AIZ |
Guide |
Global Lifestyle FY26 Adjusted EBITDA growth |
BETTER |
guide ~10-12% vs. cons ~10% (FY26) |
LOW |
| AIZ |
Guide |
FY26 share buyback |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$300-350M vs. cons ~$325M (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| AIZ |
Guide |
FY26 catastrophe load assumption |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$185M vs. cons ~$185M (FY26) |
LOW |
| AIZ |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.5% |
— |
LOW |
| AIZ |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+1.5% (STABILIZE) |
A likely underlying (ex-PYD, ex-cat) beat plus a modest FY26 guide raise on Lifestyle/underlying growth supports an initial positive reaction, but the optically weak ~7% YoY headline EPS decline from PYD roll-off, housing/cat comp risk, and a record-high ~12x valuation cap upside. Out-period estimates get little net lift because implicit PYD cuts offset the operating beat, so gains hold rather than compound — stabilize near the day-1 move. |
LOW |