{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS ex-cat",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.35 vs. cons $5.16",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Global Lifestyle Adjusted EBITDA growth (YoY)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~+13% vs. cons ~+9%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.63B vs. cons ~$2.60B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 underlying (ex-PYD, ex-cat) enterprise EPS/EBITDA growth",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~high-single-digit/~8% vs. cons ~5% (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Global Lifestyle FY26 Adjusted EBITDA growth",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~10-12% vs. cons ~10% (FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 share buyback",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$300-350M vs. cons ~$325M (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 catastrophe load assumption",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$185M vs. cons ~$185M (FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "A likely underlying (ex-PYD, ex-cat) beat plus a modest FY26 guide raise on Lifestyle/underlying growth supports an initial positive reaction, but the optically weak ~7% YoY headline EPS decline from PYD roll-off, housing/cat comp risk, and a record-high ~12x valuation cap upside. Out-period estimates get little net lift because implicit PYD cuts offset the operating beat, so gains hold rather than compound \u2014 stabilize near the day-1 move.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}