| AIZ |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (ex-cat) |
BEAT |
pred ~$5.30 vs. cons $5.16 |
MEDIUM |
| AIZ |
Report |
Total Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.47B vs. cons $3.41B |
MEDIUM |
| AIZ |
Report |
Global Housing Adjusted EBITDA (ex-cat) |
MISS |
pred ~$205M vs. cons $225M |
MEDIUM |
| AIZ |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EPS (ex-cat) growth |
BETTER |
guide ~+4-5% vs. cons +2% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AIZ |
Guide |
Global Lifestyle/Connected Living EBITDA growth |
BETTER |
guide ~+11-12% vs. cons +10% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AIZ |
Guide |
Share repurchase plan |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$300-350M vs. cons $325M (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AIZ |
Guide |
Full-year catastrophe loss assumption |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$185M vs. cons $185M (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| AIZ |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.4% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| AIZ |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-0.6% (FADE) |
Headline EPS/revenue beat plus reiterated Global Lifestyle growth likely drives an initial pop, but the stock enters the print near all-time highs with a beat-and-raise scenario already largely priced in (targets clustering $290-300, forward P/E above peer average). The Global Housing PYD-driven EBITDA normalization (non-cat loss ratio moving to high-30s, ~$94M less favorable PYD y/y) is a known headwind that will weigh on out-quarter (Q3/FY) EBITDA and EPS revisions even if Q2 beats, and Q3 carries elevated hurricane-season cat risk, prompting analysts to trim full-year estimates modestly and the stock to fade over the following days. |
MEDIUM |