AIZ Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AIZ Report Adjusted EPS (ex-cat) BEAT pred ~$5.30 vs. cons $5.16 MEDIUM
AIZ Report Total Revenue BEAT pred ~$3.47B vs. cons $3.41B MEDIUM
AIZ Report Global Housing Adjusted EBITDA (ex-cat) MISS pred ~$205M vs. cons $225M MEDIUM
AIZ Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS (ex-cat) growth BETTER guide ~+4-5% vs. cons +2% (FY2026) MEDIUM
AIZ Guide Global Lifestyle/Connected Living EBITDA growth BETTER guide ~+11-12% vs. cons +10% (FY2026) MEDIUM
AIZ Guide Share repurchase plan UNCHANGED guide ~$300-350M vs. cons $325M (FY2026) MEDIUM
AIZ Guide Full-year catastrophe loss assumption UNCHANGED guide ~$185M vs. cons $185M (FY2026) HIGH
AIZ Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.4% MEDIUM
AIZ Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.6% (FADE) Headline EPS/revenue beat plus reiterated Global Lifestyle growth likely drives an initial pop, but the stock enters the print near all-time highs with a beat-and-raise scenario already largely priced in (targets clustering $290-300, forward P/E above peer average). The Global Housing PYD-driven EBITDA normalization (non-cat loss ratio moving to high-30s, ~$94M less favorable PYD y/y) is a known headwind that will weigh on out-quarter (Q3/FY) EBITDA and EPS revisions even if Q2 beats, and Q3 carries elevated hurricane-season cat risk, prompting analysts to trim full-year estimates modestly and the stock to fade over the following days. MEDIUM