{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (ex-cat)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.30 vs. cons $5.16",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.47B vs. cons $3.41B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Global Housing Adjusted EBITDA (ex-cat)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$205M vs. cons $225M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EPS (ex-cat) growth",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~+4-5% vs. cons +2% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Global Lifestyle/Connected Living EBITDA growth",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~+11-12% vs. cons +10% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Share repurchase plan",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$300-350M vs. cons $325M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Full-year catastrophe loss assumption",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$185M vs. cons $185M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.4,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -0.6,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Headline EPS/revenue beat plus reiterated Global Lifestyle growth likely drives an initial pop, but the stock enters the print near all-time highs with a beat-and-raise scenario already largely priced in (targets clustering $290-300, forward P/E above peer average). The Global Housing PYD-driven EBITDA normalization (non-cat loss ratio moving to high-30s, ~$94M less favorable PYD y/y) is a known headwind that will weigh on out-quarter (Q3/FY) EBITDA and EPS revisions even if Q2 beats, and Q3 carries elevated hurricane-season cat risk, prompting analysts to trim full-year estimates modestly and the stock to fade over the following days.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}