{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.28 vs. cons $5.16",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA excluding reportable catastrophes",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$419M vs. cons $414M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Global Lifestyle adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$221M vs. cons $218M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA excluding reportable catastrophes",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.79B vs. cons $1.78B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS excluding reportable catastrophes",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$23.55 vs. cons $23.45 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Global Lifestyle adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$881M vs. cons $881M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.2,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 1.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest quarter beat supports a +2.2% day-1 residual, but FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of ~$23.55 versus consensus of $23.45 implies limited out-period revisions, causing the cumulative residual to fade toward +1.0% by day 5.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}