| ALB |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$700M vs. cons ~$640M |
MEDIUM |
| ALB |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.20 vs. cons ~$2.75 |
MEDIUM |
| ALB |
Report |
Net sales (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.55B vs. cons ~$1.47B |
MEDIUM |
| ALB |
Guide |
FY26 Adj. EBITDA scenario framework (~$20/kg lithium) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$2.4-2.6B vs. cons ~$2.45B (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| ALB |
Guide |
H2'26 lithium price / Energy Storage volume commentary (contract-lag rollover into softer spot) |
LOWER |
guide ~flat vol / no lean above $20 scenario vs. cons hoping for ~$30/kg lean (H2'26) |
MEDIUM |
| ALB |
Guide |
FY26 Specialties (bromine) EBITDA |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$225-275M vs. cons ~$255M (FY26) |
LOW |
| ALB |
Guide |
Middle East unmitigated cost impact |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$70-90M vs. cons ~$80M (FY26) |
LOW |
| ALB |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+5.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| ALB |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+2.0% (FADE) |
The likely Q2 headline beat is a backward-looking artifact of the ~1-quarter contract-pricing lag (Q2 realized captures Q1's ~$20-27/kg spot). With June/July spot softening, EV demand soft (China -15%, NA -25% YTD) and demand-destruction risk flagged near break-even, the out-period math implies H2 estimate cuts even after a beat; harder H2 volume comps, Greenbushes JV friction and 2026 contract roll-offs cap follow-through, so an oversold-driven day-1 pop fades toward a smaller cumulative residual. |
MEDIUM |