{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$700M vs. cons ~$640M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.20 vs. cons ~$2.75",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net sales (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.55B vs. cons ~$1.47B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Adj. EBITDA scenario framework (~$20/kg lithium)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.4-2.6B vs. cons ~$2.45B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "H2'26 lithium price / Energy Storage volume commentary (contract-lag rollover into softer spot)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~flat vol / no lean above $20 scenario vs. cons hoping for ~$30/kg lean (H2'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Specialties (bromine) EBITDA",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$225-275M vs. cons ~$255M (FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Middle East unmitigated cost impact",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$70-90M vs. cons ~$80M (FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 5.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "The likely Q2 headline beat is a backward-looking artifact of the ~1-quarter contract-pricing lag (Q2 realized captures Q1's ~$20-27/kg spot). With June/July spot softening, EV demand soft (China -15%, NA -25% YTD) and demand-destruction risk flagged near break-even, the out-period math implies H2 estimate cuts even after a beat; harder H2 volume comps, Greenbushes JV friction and 2026 contract roll-offs cap follow-through, so an oversold-driven day-1 pop fades toward a smaller cumulative residual.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}