{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.75 vs. cons ~$3.20",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net Sales/Revenue (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.68B vs. cons ~$1.59B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$740M vs. cons ~$675M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 EBITDA scenario framework (full-year)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.0-2.2B vs. cons ~$2.4-2.6B (FY2026, tied to $20/kg scenario)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Energy Storage segment EBITDA margin (Q3'26 outlook)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~high-20s% vs. cons ~mid-30s% (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Capex",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$550-600M vs. cons ~$575M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Trailing Q2 beat (still capturing elevated spot pricing through most of the quarter) drives an initial relief pop given how oversold ALB is (-44% off highs) and how far below Street price targets it trades. But management's narrowing/lowering of the FY26 lithium-price scenario framework toward the $10-15/kg range post-Jianxiawo restart forces analysts to cut FY26/27 EBITDA and EPS estimates in the days following the print, offsetting the beat via out-period math and causing the initial pop to fade over the week as sell-side models catch down to the lower realized/forward lithium price.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}