| ALL |
Report |
Adjusted operating EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$5.35 vs. cons ~$4.92 |
MEDIUM |
| ALL |
Report |
Total revenue |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$17.8B vs. cons ~$17.7B |
MEDIUM |
| ALL |
Report |
Underlying auto combined ratio (ex-cat/ex-reserve) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~90.5 vs. cons ~90.0 |
LOW |
| ALL |
Guide |
FY26 policy-in-force (PIF) growth — Allstate Protection |
BETTER |
guide ~+2.7% vs. cons ~+2.4% (FY26) |
LOW |
| ALL |
Guide |
Capital return / buyback pace |
BETTER |
guide ~$3.6B remaining, accelerated vs. ~$0.9B/qtr run-rate (2H26) |
MEDIUM |
| ALL |
Guide |
Auto underlying margin / rate posture (margin-for-growth) |
LOWER |
guide underlying auto CR drifting toward mid-90s ~94 vs. ~90 current (2H26 target) |
MEDIUM |
| ALL |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| ALL |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.5% (FADE) |
Likely clean EPS beat (~$5.35 vs ~$4.92) driven mainly by lower pre-disclosed cats ($1.72B vs $1.99B) and further favorable auto reserve releases — low-quality, non-recurring drivers. With the stock up ~29% YTD, at record highs and already trading above the ~$255 avg sell-side target, the out-period math caps upside: management is deliberately cutting rate/giving up margin, so underlying auto CR normalizes toward mid-90s and forward EPS estimates get trimmed even after the headline beat. Expect an initial pop that partially fades as analysts mark down out-quarters and profit-taking resumes. |
MEDIUM |