| ALL |
Report |
Adjusted Net Income per Diluted Share (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$7.10 vs. cons $4.92 |
MEDIUM |
| ALL |
Report |
Property-Liability Combined Ratio (Q2 2026, recorded) |
BEAT |
pred ~87.0 vs. cons ~89.5 (lower is better) |
MEDIUM |
| ALL |
Report |
Total Revenue / Net Premiums Earned (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$17.95B vs. cons $17.73B |
MEDIUM |
| ALL |
Guide |
Underlying (ex-cat, ex-PYD) Combined Ratio trend commentary |
BETTER |
guide ~80.0 vs. cons ~82.0 (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| ALL |
Guide |
Capital return / buyback run-rate (post $4B authorization) |
BETTER |
guide ~$1.5B/quarter vs. cons ~$1.0B/quarter (H2 2026) |
LOW |
| ALL |
Guide |
FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS revision post-print |
BETTER |
guide ~$30.50 vs. cons $28.50 (FY2026) |
LOW |
| ALL |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| ALL |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.5% (FADE) |
Precedent from Q1 2026 (a 43% EPS beat still closed -1.9%) shows the market has already priced in Allstate's beat pattern given pre-announced cats and a well-telegraphed favorable reserve/cat backdrop already confirmed by Travelers/Progressive read-throughs. With ALL up ~29% since April and trading near all-time highs/rich relative multiples, the incremental beat is largely known; the swing factor is the deceleration of the Q1 $838M reserve-release tailwind and a brand-new CFO's first call, both of which skew commentary toward caution on out-quarter reserve durability. That combination typically triggers 'sell-the-news' on day 1 that continues to bleed over the week as sell-side analysts true-up 2H26 underlying-margin and reserve-release assumptions lower even after headline EPS beats, producing a fade rather than follow-through. |
LOW |