{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$7.20 vs. cons $5.61",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Property-Liability combined ratio",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~89.8% vs. cons 91.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Auto underlying combined ratio",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~90.2% vs. cons 90.8%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Auto underlying combined ratio outlook",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~90.5% vs. cons 91.5% (2H 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Allstate Protection policy growth outlook",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~3.0% vs. cons 2.6% (2H 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.4,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 1.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A headline beat and favorable reported combined ratio should lift the shares initially, but outsized prior-year reserve development, lower pricing and gradual auto-margin normalization limit out-period estimate revisions, causing part of the day-1 gain to fade.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}