ALL Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ALL Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$5.35 vs. cons $5.01 MEDIUM
ALL Report Total revenue BEAT pred ~$17.55bn vs. cons $17.18bn MEDIUM
ALL Report Underlying Property-Liability combined ratio BEAT pred ~82.5 vs. cons 84.0 MEDIUM
ALL Guide FY2026 underlying Property-Liability combined-ratio commentary BETTER guide ~83.5 vs. cons 84.5 (FY2026) LOW
ALL Guide Allstate Protection policy-in-force growth commentary BETTER guide ~3.0% vs. cons 2.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
ALL Guide FY2026 capital return / repurchase pacing commentary UNCHANGED guide ~$3.5bn vs. cons $3.5bn (FY2026) LOW
ALL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.1% MEDIUM
ALL Return 5-day cumulative residual +3.4% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) ~$5.35 Q2 EPS versus $5.01 consensus and an ~82.5 underlying combined ratio versus 84.0 support upward FY2026 earnings revisions; ~3.0% policy growth versus 2.5% consensus makes the beat more durable than a reserve-only or catastrophe-timing benefit. MEDIUM