{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.35 vs. cons $5.01",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$17.55bn vs. cons $17.18bn",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Underlying Property-Liability combined ratio",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~82.5 vs. cons 84.0",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 underlying Property-Liability combined-ratio commentary",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~83.5 vs. cons 84.5 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Allstate Protection policy-in-force growth commentary",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~3.0% vs. cons 2.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 capital return / repurchase pacing commentary",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$3.5bn vs. cons $3.5bn (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.1,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 3.4,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "~$5.35 Q2 EPS versus $5.01 consensus and an ~82.5 underlying combined ratio versus 84.0 support upward FY2026 earnings revisions; ~3.0% policy growth versus 2.5% consensus makes the beat more durable than a reserve-only or catastrophe-timing benefit.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}