{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Overall Combined Ratio - Allstate Protection",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~90.5 vs. cons 91.9",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Homeowners Combined Ratio",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~93.0 vs. cons 95.4",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Auto Policies in Force",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~25,950K vs. cons 25,949K",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Underlying CR Trajectory (H2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide better-than-embedded; management signals continued improvement below mid-90s auto target",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Policy Growth / New Business (H2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide signals record new business continuing; PIF growth accelerating toward 3-4%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Pricing Posture (H2 2026)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "net-neutral rate stance reaffirmed; no re-acceleration of increases",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -0.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "STABILIZE - initial flat/slight-negative on high bar and no formal raise; modest recovery as Street revises H2 estimates upward on underlying beat and short covering provides a bid",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}