{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Operating diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.15 vs. cons $6.03",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted combined ratio ex-cats/reserves",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~80.4% vs. cons 80.77%",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net investment income - Allstate Protection",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$790M vs. cons $768M",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Auto pricing / margin posture (2H26)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~selective price reductions within mid-90s auto CR target; no numerical Street guide",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Homeowners growth / underwriting (2H26)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~profitable growth within low-90s reported CR target; no numerical Street guide",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital return (2H26)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~continue $4B authorization; no numerical Street guide",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -0.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "FADE \u2014 modest beat likely sells first on elevated expectations, then stabilizes",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}