AMD Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AMD Report Total Revenue BEAT pred ~$11.5B vs. cons $11.3B HIGH
AMD Report Non-GAAP EPS BEAT pred ~$1.68 vs. cons $1.61 MEDIUM
AMD Report Data Center segment revenue BEAT pred ~$6.6B vs. cons $6.4B MEDIUM
AMD Guide Q2 Non-GAAP gross margin (reported) UNCHANGED pred ~56% vs. cons 56% (Q2'26 reported) HIGH
AMD Guide Q3'26 revenue guide BETTER guide ~$13.0B vs. cons $12.6B (Q3'26) MEDIUM
AMD Guide Q3'26 Non-GAAP gross margin guide LOWER guide ~55% vs. cons 56% (Q3'26, MI450 ramp dilution) MEDIUM
AMD Guide 2027 Data Center AI revenue framing BETTER guide ~$30B+ vs. cons ~$25B (FY2027 'tens of billions') MEDIUM
AMD Guide 2H'26 Gaming revenue LOWER guide down >20% H/H vs. cons ~down 10% (2H'26) MEDIUM
AMD Guide Server CPU YoY growth commentary BETTER guide ~+70% YoY vs. cons ~+55% YoY (Q2'26) MEDIUM
AMD Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +7.0% MEDIUM
AMD Return 5-day cumulative residual +9.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Stock derisked ~17% off June highs into the print (485 vs 580), so a likely beat-and-raise with reaffirmed/hiked 2027 'tens of billions' AI trajectory and +70% server-CPU narrative reignites momentum-buying rather than triggering fade, echoing the +18.6% Q1 reaction and continued drift higher. Out-period math is mixed — MI450 ramp is Q4 gross-margin dilutive (implicit near-term margin cuts) — which caps the extension and adds fade risk, but the escalating TAM/backlog (Anthropic 2GW, Meta 6GW, Core Scientific >$14B) drives net-positive 2H/2027 revenue revisions that carry the initial move forward modestly. LOW