AMGN Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AMGN Report Total revenue (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$9.55B vs. cons $9.42B MEDIUM
AMGN Report Non-GAAP EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$5.72 vs. cons $5.59 MEDIUM
AMGN Report Repatha product sales (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$925M vs. cons $904M LOW
AMGN Guide FY2026 revenue guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$37.1–38.5B (reaffirm, midpt ~$37.8B) vs. cons $38.0B (FY26) MEDIUM
AMGN Guide FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$21.70–23.10 (reaffirm, midpt ~$22.40) vs. cons $22.40 (FY26) MEDIUM
AMGN Guide FY2026 non-GAAP operating margin guidance UNCHANGED guide ~45–46% vs. cons ~45% (FY26) MEDIUM
AMGN Guide Cybersecurity incident quantified financial impact UNKNOWN guide ~$0 quantified/no material impact vs. cons ~$0 modeled (FY26 one-time) LOW
AMGN Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.0% MEDIUM
AMGN Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Even on an in-line-to-modest beat with reaffirmed (not re-raised) guidance, the setup is a 'sell-the-news' after a ~+20% YTD run to a $393 late-July high and a full valuation; Q1'26 fell ~5% on a beat/raise, showing a high bar. Out-period math is negative: accelerating Prolia/XGEVA/Enbrel biosimilar erosion plus ~mid-single-digit Repatha price declines cap the sequential build, so 2027+ estimates get trimmed even as 2026 is defended. Add unquantified cyber-breach remediation/litigation risk and the imminent IRS Tax Court/2016–18 NOPA overhang. Low beta (~0.6) mutes the market offset, so idiosyncratic drift stays negative and follows through lower over the week. LOW