Report date: Tuesday, August 4, 2026, after market close | Call: 4:30 PM ET
AMGN shares have been on a strong run heading into the quarter, rallying from roughly $330 in early May to a 52-week high near $393 in late July before settling around $379-385 in the days ahead of the report. The stock has meaningfully outpaced its own history and much of large-cap biopharma this summer, largely on enthusiasm for the obesity pipeline (MariTide) and cardiovascular franchise (Repatha), plus relief on a couple of legal/regulatory overhangs (see below). That run-up raises the bar for what the market will consider a "good" print.
Consensus expectations for Q2 2026 center on EPS of roughly $5.60-$5.62 (non-GAAP) and revenue of approximately $9.4-$9.45 billion, which would represent modest year-over-year revenue growth (~2-3%) but a year-over-year EPS decline versus the $6.02 posted in Q2 2025, reflecting tougher comps and continued reinvestment in the pipeline. Amgen has beaten consensus EPS in each of the last several quarters, including a sizable beat last quarter ($5.15 actual vs. $4.77 consensus), so expectations for another beat are elevated.
Full-year 2026 guidance, raised alongside Q1 results, currently stands at: - Total revenue: $37.1B–$38.5B - Non-GAAP EPS: $21.70–$23.10 - Non-GAAP operating margin: roughly 45–46% of product sales - Capex: ~$2.6B; buybacks capped at $3.0B
"Our first quarter results demonstrate the strength of our business, with 16 brands achieving double-digit growth, enabling us to grow through expected patent expirations and increased competition. With a new wave of molecules progressing in Phase 3 clinical development, we're confident in our ability to deliver attractive long-term growth," said Robert A. Bradway, chairman and chief executive officer. Management framed 2026 as a "springboard year," and investors will want confirmation that the growth-driver portfolio is still outrunning legacy patent losses at the pace implied by guidance, plus another guidance raise if trends have stayed strong.
Q1 2026 total revenue grew 6% to $8.6 billion, with product sales up 4% driven by 9% volume growth, partially offset by 2% lower net selling price and 2% from lower inventory levels. Sixteen products posted double-digit growth and seventeen are now annualizing above $1 billion. Non-GAAP EPS grew 5% to $5.15.
The quarter illustrated the two-speed nature of the Amgen story:
Growth engines (accelerating): - Repatha: sales increased 34% year-over-year to $876 million, driven by 35% volume growth and 8% favorable changes to estimated sales deductions, partially offset by 7% lower net selling price, fueled by new VESALIUS-CV cardiovascular outcomes data and expanded primary-care/cash-pay access. - EVENITY: sales increased 27% year-over-year to $562 million, driven by volume growth, with U.S. leadership in the bone-builder category. - TEZSPIRE: up 20% to $343 million; UPLIZNA: up 188% to $262 million; TEPEZZA: up 29% to $490 million; IMDELLTRA: up 219% to $258 million; and biosimilars (led by PAVBLU) up 14% to $835 million.
Legacy erosion (as expected): - Prolia: sales decreased 34% year-over-year to $727 million, primarily driven by 17% lower volume, 10% lower net selling price, and 4% from lower inventory levels, with management noting "for 2026, we continue to expect accelerated sales erosion driven by increased competition, as multiple biosimilars have launched globally." - XGEVA fell 27% to $411 million on similar biosimilar dynamics. - Enbrel dropped 37% to $320 million, "primarily driven by unfavorable changes to estimated sales deductions of 18% and 15% lower net selling price... reflect[ing] the impact of U.S. Medicare Part D price setting under the Inflation Reduction Act."
Investors should watch whether Q2 shows Prolia/XGEVA erosion decelerating or, per guidance, accelerating further as more biosimilars ramp globally — this is the key swing factor for the "beat-the-cliff" thesis.
1. MariTide remains the dominant long-term story, but no pivotal data this quarter. On the Q1 call, R&D chief Jay Bradner detailed an expanding Phase 3 program (MARITIME-1/2, CV, HF, OSA-1/2, SWITCH, and two long-term extension studies), and highlighted encouraging tolerability with 3-step dose escalation: "The level of nausea and vomiting observed with 3-step dose escalation is lower than we've seen before... today we share the unsurprising but accumulating data that provide clinical confirmation that 3-step dose escalation further improves GI tolerability." Expect incremental commentary on enrollment progress and manufacturing scale-up (capex is being directed partly toward MariTide launch readiness), but the core efficacy/safety Phase 3 readouts are still pending — this remains a "trust the story" asset until data lands, and the stock's rally has already priced in a lot of optimism here.
2. Legal win on Enbrel pricing. In early July, a federal judge temporarily blocked a price cap set by Colorado's Prescription Drug Affordability Board on Amgen's blockbuster drug Enbrel, a meaningful precedent-setting win against state drug price-control efforts more broadly. This removed a tail risk overhang and likely contributed to the stock's July rally.
3. TAVNEOS regulatory risk is unresolved. The FDA moved in late April to propose withdrawal of TAVNEOS's approval, citing lack of substantial evidence of effectiveness and alleged untrue statements in the original ChemoCentryx application, compounded by an FDA Drug Safety Communication on fatal hepatotoxicity/vanishing bile duct syndrome cases. Amgen has said it will contest the withdrawal and that "TAVNEOS will remain on the market during the pendency of this process," but this is a real (if financially modest, ~$120M/quarter) overhang investors will want updated on.
4. A newly disclosed cybersecurity incident. On July 31, Amgen filed an 8-K disclosing that "in July 2026, Amgen Inc. identified unauthorized activity involving data stored in cloud environments hosted by third-party cloud service providers," and that "some of its data, including proprietary data, patient protected health information, and other information, has been exfiltrated from these cloud environments." Importantly, Amgen stated "the Company believes... that the incident is not reasonably likely to have a material impact on the Company's financial condition or results of operations," and that there has been no identified impact to products, manufacturing, or financial systems. Still, expect questions on scope, remediation costs, and litigation/reputational risk (media reports point to a vendor-side breach potentially tied to the "ShinyHunters" threat actor cluster that has hit other large enterprises' cloud environments in 2025-2026).
5. Leadership transition in the CFO seat. Longtime CFO Peter Griffith is retiring; Thomas Dittrich (returning from Galderma, with prior Amgen finance experience) becomes CFO effective September 1, 2026, with Griffith staying through January 2027 for transition support. This is Griffith's last full quarterly print as sitting CFO — worth watching for any tone shift on capital allocation or margin framework as the handoff nears.
6. IRS tax dispute — a genuine tail risk to monitor. Beyond the long-running 2010-2015 tax court case (decision possible in H2 2026), management disclosed on the Q1 call that it received a draft Notice of Proposed Adjustment (NOPA) for tax years 2016-2018 from the IRS relating to U.S./Puerto Rico profit allocation, cautioning that "if sustained in full, the adjustments set forth in the draft NOPA could have a material impact on our financial statements," while stating Amgen "firmly believe[s] that the IRS positions are without merit." Any update on either dispute is a key swing factor for sentiment given the size of Amgen's Puerto Rico manufacturing footprint.
Amgen enters this print from a position of operating strength — a diversified, fast-growing portfolio (Repatha, EVENITY, TEZSPIRE, UPLIZNA, TEPEZZA, IMDELLTRA, biosimilars) that has more than offset legacy losses of exclusivity, a raised full-year guide, and a recent legal win on drug pricing. But the stock's sharp rally into earnings — trading near all-time highs while the pre-rally Street consensus price target (~$357) sits below the current quote — means expectations are high, and the market's focus may shift from "beat the quarter" toward the qualitative narrative: MariTide's competitive positioning and timeline, the resolution paths for TAVNEOS and the IRS dispute, and the fallout from the newly disclosed data breach. A clean beat-and-raise with reassuring commentary on these overhangs would likely be needed to sustain momentum; any wobble in the growth-driver trajectory or fresh legal/regulatory news could trigger a sharper pullback given how much good news is already priced in.