Timing clarification: Amgen is scheduled to report today, Tuesday, August 4, 2026, after the U.S. market close, followed by its earnings call at 4:30 p.m. ET—not tomorrow.
The central question is whether Amgen’s newer growth franchises can continue to offset rapidly declining legacy products without creating greater-than-expected margin pressure.
Q1 showed that the transition is working: revenue grew 6%, product volume increased 9%, and six key growth areas—Repatha, EVENITY, TEZSPIRE, rare disease, innovative oncology, and biosimilars—collectively grew 24%. But the offsets are substantial. Prolia, XGEVA, and Enbrel declined sharply, while late-stage pipeline spending pushed R&D up 16% and compressed the non-GAAP operating margin.
The stock enters the report with reasonably high expectations. AMGN closed August 3 at $378.91, up about 9% from April 30 versus roughly 5% for the S&P 500 proxy, although it has retreated about 4% from its July 28 high.
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q2 2025 comparison | FY2026 guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $8.62B | $9.18B | $37.1B–$38.5B |
| Product sales | $8.22B | $8.77B | — |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $5.15 | $6.02 | $21.70–$23.10 |
| Non-GAAP operating margin | 45.3% | 48.9% | Approximately 45%–46% |
| Free cash flow | $1.48B | $1.91B | — |
| Capital spending | $0.71B | $0.37B | Approximately $2.6B |
The midpoint of current revenue and EPS guidance represents only about 3% growth over 2025, leaving room for a modest guidance increase if commercial execution remains strong. After Q1, midpoint revenue guidance requires roughly $29.2 billion over the final three quarters, or an average of about $9.7 billion per quarter.
Because Q4 is typically stronger, Q2 does not necessarily need to reach that quarterly average. Still, a low-to-mid-single-digit revenue increase from last year’s $9.18 billion—roughly a $9.4 billion to $9.7 billion guide-consistent zone—would be a constructive result. This is a directional framework, not a live consensus estimate.
Repatha generated $876 million in Q1, up 34%, following 36% full-year growth in 2025. Demand is benefiting from broader cardiovascular prevention use, strong VESALIUS-CV data, and increased primary-care promotion.
What matters:
The Q2 2025 comparison is $696 million, making another strong double-digit increase achievable. A result approaching or exceeding Q1’s $876 million would support the view that Repatha can become one of Amgen’s largest products.
This remains the quarter’s core portfolio test.
In Q1:
Management expects erosion to accelerate during 2026 as additional biosimilars launch globally. The comparison becomes especially difficult in Q2 because Prolia and XGEVA generated a combined $1.65 billion in Q2 2025, well above their Q1 2026 run rate.
Investors should focus on whether Amgen’s growth portfolio can absorb another large year-over-year reduction without total product sales turning negative. The amount of price versus volume erosion will also help indicate how steep the decline may be in the second half.
The acquired Horizon portfolio has several promising growth assets:
UPLIZNA is the standout. The key question is whether its generalized myasthenia gravis launch can sustain rapid sequential growth after a very strong Q1.
TEPEZZA requires a cleaner read on underlying demand because Q1 benefited from higher inventory. Investors will want updates on international launches and the timing of a regulatory submission for the subcutaneous on-body-injector formulation.
Since the Q1 report:
TAVNEOS itself is not large enough to drive the quarter financially, but investors should listen for:
IMDELLTRA produced $258 million in Q1, up 219% year over year and 10% sequentially from Q4 2025. Adoption has expanded into community oncology, with management calling it a standard of care in second-line small-cell lung cancer.
The Q2 2025 comparison is only $134 million, so another large year-over-year increase is likely. More important than the growth percentage will be:
A clear deceleration despite geographic launches would be disappointing. Continued double-digit sequential growth would reinforce IMDELLTRA as a future blockbuster.
These products reduce Amgen’s dependence on any single franchise:
EVENITY should benefit from Amgen’s expanded commercial investment and low penetration among very-high-risk osteoporosis patients.
TEZSPIRE’s Q1 sales were affected by an inventory reduction, so sequential acceleration would be reassuring. Management may also discuss its Phase 3 COPD studies and the eosinophilic esophagitis study expected to complete in the second half of 2026.
PAVBLU has scaled rapidly and could help compensate for weakness elsewhere in the biosimilar portfolio. Watch whether volume growth continues despite intensifying competition in the ophthalmology market.
Amgen previously said Q2’s non-GAAP operating margin should be approximately in line with Q1’s 45.3%. That would be materially below the 48.9% reported in Q2 2025.
The pressure is largely strategic rather than a sign of weak cost control:
Therefore, revenue growth may not translate into comparable EPS growth. The prior-year non-GAAP EPS comparison of $6.02 is demanding.
A margin meaningfully below 45% would be concerning unless accompanied by a clearly valuable increase in pipeline investment. Conversely, holding the margin near 45% while absorbing denosumab erosion would be a solid result.
Current guidance is:
The existing ranges are wide, so a simple reiteration would not necessarily be negative. However, following a strong Q1 and with the stock having appreciated, investors may expect management to at least indicate that results are tracking toward the upper half.
On July 31, Amgen disclosed a material cybersecurity incident involving third-party cloud environments. Proprietary data, patient protected health information, and other information were exfiltrated.
Amgen said it had not identified an impact on:
It also said the incident was not reasonably likely to materially affect its financial condition or operating results. Nevertheless, the investigation was still ongoing.
Investors should seek answers on:
A concise reaffirmation that the incident is contained and financially immaterial would remove an important near-term overhang. Vague answers or evidence that sensitive R&D information was compromised could overshadow an otherwise good earnings report.
No pivotal efficacy readout is expected with this earnings release, but MariTide remains central to Amgen’s valuation.
Important updates would include:
Investors will be particularly sensitive to any delay or new tolerability concern. Conversely, management confidence based on enrollment and blinded safety experience could support the long-term story.
Two Phase 3 Sjögren’s studies are expected to complete in the second half of 2026. Management may provide more precise timing. Positive data could create a meaningful new rare-disease franchise, while the heterogeneous disease and historical difficulty of Sjögren’s development make this a higher-risk catalyst.
Amgen ended Q1 with approximately $12.0 billion of cash and $57.3 billion of debt. Free cash flow remains healthy, but capital spending is rising as Amgen expands U.S. manufacturing capacity.
The unresolved IRS dispute also deserves attention. Management said a decision in the 2010–2015 Tax Court case was not expected before the second half of 2026. Amgen also received a draft proposed adjustment for 2016–2018 that could be material if sustained. This is unlikely to affect the operating quarter, but any procedural update could move the stock.
A high-quality result would include:
Amgen’s commercial transition appears to be working, but Q2 presents a tougher test because the company must absorb a much larger denosumab comparison while maintaining heavy pipeline investment.
The most important numbers will be product sales, non-GAAP operating margin, and full-year guidance. The most important qualitative issue will be the cybersecurity incident. Strong growth from Repatha, UPLIZNA, and IMDELLTRA can support the bull case, but investors will likely require both clean execution and reassurance that cyber, TAVNEOS, and margin risks remain contained.
Research basis: Amgen’s Q1 2026 and Q2/FY2025 earnings materials and calls, Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, July 31, 2026 cybersecurity Form 8-K, recent company releases, regulatory news, and market-price data through August 3, 2026.