Date clarification: The stated event date is August 4, 2026, which is today, not tomorrow. This preview is written ahead of the scheduled 2026 Q2 earnings call.
Amgen enters Q2 with a constructive but demanding setup. The core debate is no longer whether the company has growth assets—it does—but whether growth in Repatha, UPLIZNA, IMDELLTRA, EVENITY, TEPEZZA, and biosimilars can continue to outpace accelerating losses in the mature portfolio, principally Prolia, XGEVA, Enbrel, and eventually Otezla.
Q1 supported management’s “springboard year” framing: product sales grew 4% year over year, and the six designated growth drivers generated nearly 70% of product sales and grew 24% collectively. But Q2 presents a harder comparison, and the market will likely be more focused on the quality and durability of growth than on a simple EPS beat.
The key near-term stock drivers are:
AMGN closed at $378.91 on August 3, up about 15.8% year to date, ahead of the S&P 500’s roughly 11.1% gain and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR’s roughly 4.8% gain. The shares had reached $393.10 on July 28 before pulling back about 3.6%, suggesting solid expectations but not necessarily an extreme pre-print setup.
Q1 showed strong underlying momentum across Amgen’s newer and expanding franchises:
| Product / portfolio | Q2 2025 sales | Q1 2026 sales | What to watch in Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Repatha | $696M | $876M | Primary-prevention adoption, access, and net price |
| EVENITY | $518M | $562M | U.S. demand and international durability |
| UPLIZNA | $176M | $262M | gMG uptake, share gains and indication expansion |
| IMDELLTRA | $134M | $258M | Community-oncology adoption and launch trajectory |
| PAVBLU | $130M | $280M | Volume growth and competitive biosimilar dynamics |
| TEPEZZA | $505M | $490M | Demand normalization after Q1 inventory benefit |
The bull case is that Repatha, rare disease, innovative oncology and biosimilars have reached sufficient scale to offset legacy-brand declines. In Q1, management highlighted 16 brands with double-digit growth and 17 products annualizing above $1 billion.
The caution is that quarterly comparisons can be distorted by channel inventory, shipment timing, rebates, and launch sequencing. TEPEZZA’s Q1 growth, for example, benefited from higher inventory, while KRYSTEXXA also had an inventory contribution. Investors should prioritize volume and demand commentary over reported sales alone.
The key negative swing factor is the denosumab franchise:
For perspective, the Q2 2025 comparison base was still substantial: Prolia generated $1.12 billion and XGEVA $532 million. The speed of erosion—and management’s confidence in the rest-of-year trajectory—could matter more for valuation than modest upside in any one growth brand.
Investor question: Is the franchise decline tracking management’s expected curve, or is competition and price pressure progressing faster than anticipated?
Repatha is the commercial bright spot. In Q1, sales rose 34% to $876 million, supported by volume growth and favorable changes in estimated sales deductions. The company has emphasized:
The most important datapoints on the call will be new-to-brand prescription growth, payer access, persistence, net pricing, and whether primary-care expansion is translating into durable demand rather than a short-term promotional lift.
IMDELLTRA delivered $258 million in Q1, up sharply from $134 million in Q2 2025. Management has positioned it as a standard of care in second-line extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer and has emphasized increasing use in community oncology. Q2 should show whether operational barriers—site readiness, monitoring, and administration logistics—continue to diminish.
UPLIZNA is another important contributor, with Q1 sales up 188% year over year to $262 million. Adoption in generalized myasthenia gravis is the principal driver, while broader autoimmune development provides additional optionality. Continued execution here is important because UPLIZNA helps diversify Amgen’s rare-disease business beyond TEPEZZA and KRYSTEXXA.
Amgen’s current 2026 outlook calls for:
The respective guidance midpoints are $37.8 billion of revenue and $22.40 of non-GAAP EPS.
In Q1, Amgen generated:
Management had said Q2 non-GAAP operating margin should be broadly in line with Q1. That makes margin performance a useful test of whether growing royalty/profit-share expense, mix shifts, and heavy late-stage R&D investment—especially around MariTide—are staying within plan.
The Q2 2025 comparison is not easy: Amgen reported $9.18B of revenue, $6.02 of non-GAAP EPS, and a 48.9% non-GAAP operating margin. The lower expected 2026 margin framework reflects an intentional choice to invest in the pipeline, but investors will want confirmation that this is a controlled investment cycle rather than a deteriorating earnings algorithm.
MariTide remains the largest long-term source of upside and uncertainty. The Phase 3 program is ongoing across weight management, cardiovascular outcomes, heart failure, obstructive sleep apnea, maintenance, and switching from weekly GLP-1/GIP therapies.
Management has emphasized two differentiators:
The immediate earnings relevance is expense rather than revenue: Amgen is spending heavily to advance MariTide and build manufacturing capacity. Investors should listen for enrollment progress, timing confirmation, manufacturing readiness, and any updated view on the ultimate commercial positioning versus established obesity competitors.
On July 31, Amgen disclosed a material cybersecurity incident involving unauthorized activity in third-party cloud environments. The company said proprietary data, patient protected health information, and other information were exfiltrated. It also stated that, as of the filing, it had not identified an impact on products, manufacturing, financial-reporting systems, or its ability to meet patient needs, and did not believe the incident was reasonably likely to materially affect financial condition or operating results.
This deserves attention even if it is not expected to change Q2 financials. Investors should look for commentary on:
AMGN’s Q2 report is primarily a test of whether portfolio rotation is working on schedule. The company has credible growth assets and demonstrated momentum in Q1, but the market needs proof that these assets can absorb rapidly accelerating biosimilar and pricing pressure in the legacy portfolio without compromising margins or guidance.
The highest-value questions are straightforward:
For this report, a modest earnings beat alone may not be enough. The stock reaction will likely depend on whether management strengthens confidence in the 2026 exit rate and the longer-term transition from legacy biologics to a more diversified growth portfolio.