APA Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
APA Report Adj. EPS (Diluted Operating) BEAT actual $1.89 vs cons $1.87 HIGH
APA Report U.S. Oil Production (Mbpd) BEAT actual 123.5 vs cons 121.7 HIGH
APA Report Free Cash Flow IN-LINE actual $738M vs cons $734M HIGH
APA Guide FY 2026 U.S. Oil Production (Mbpd) BETTER guide 123K vs cons 122.7K HIGH
APA Guide FY 2026 Lease Operating Expense BETTER guide $1.50B vs cons $1.503B HIGH
APA Guide FY 2026 Upstream Capex BETTER guide $2.07B vs cons $2.147B HIGH
APA Guide Exit Run-Rate Cost Savings (FY 2026) BETTER guide $500M vs prior $450M target HIGH
APA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +4.5% MEDIUM
APA Return 5-day cumulative residual +8.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FOLLOW-THROUGH — sell-side revisions lift FY EPS on oil raise + LOE cut + capex trim; Waha resolution removes key bear thesis; short cover bid sustains momentum MEDIUM