APO Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
APO Report Adjusted Net Income / EPS BEAT pred ~$2.18 vs. cons $2.15 MEDIUM
APO Report Total inflows (organic) BEAT pred ~$53B vs. cons $50.4B MEDIUM
APO Report Athene net spread / SRE (bps) IN-LINE pred ~119 bps vs. cons ~121 bps (SRE ~$1.16/sh vs cons ~$1.17) MEDIUM
APO Guide FY2026 FRE growth UNCHANGED guide reaffirmed ~20%+ vs. cons ~20% (FY2026) HIGH
APO Guide FY2026 SRE growth UNCHANGED guide reaffirmed ~10% vs. cons ~10% (FY2026, 11% alts assumption) MEDIUM
APO Guide FY2026 net spread range UNCHANGED guide ~120-125 bps vs. cons ~122 bps (FY2026) MEDIUM
APO Guide Q2 origination commentary BETTER guide ~$85-90B, near record vs. cons ~$80B (2026Q2) MEDIUM
APO Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.0% LOW
APO Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.5% (FADE) Stock ran up ~5.5% residual into the print (APO +7.7% vs SPY +2.2% over two sessions), so an operationally strong FRE/origination beat is largely priced. With SRE/net spread only stabilizing (not beating) and persistent private-credit/BDC overhang, out-period math and modest downward SRE revisions plus 'sell-the-news' positioning pull the initial pop back over the following week. LOW