{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Net Income / EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.18 vs. cons $2.15",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total inflows (organic)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$53B vs. cons $50.4B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Athene net spread / SRE (bps)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~119 bps vs. cons ~121 bps (SRE ~$1.16/sh vs cons ~$1.17)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 FRE growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide reaffirmed ~20%+ vs. cons ~20% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 SRE growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide reaffirmed ~10% vs. cons ~10% (FY2026, 11% alts assumption)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 net spread range",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~120-125 bps vs. cons ~122 bps (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 origination commentary",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$85-90B, near record vs. cons ~$80B (2026Q2)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock ran up ~5.5% residual into the print (APO +7.7% vs SPY +2.2% over two sessions), so an operationally strong FRE/origination beat is largely priced. With SRE/net spread only stabilizing (not beating) and persistent private-credit/BDC overhang, out-period math and modest downward SRE revisions plus 'sell-the-news' positioning pull the initial pop back over the following week.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}