| APO |
Report |
Adjusted Net Income / EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.20 vs. cons $2.15 |
MEDIUM |
| APO |
Report |
Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) |
BEAT |
pred ~$780M vs. cons $755M |
MEDIUM |
| APO |
Report |
Net Inflows / Capital Formation |
MISS |
pred ~$46B vs. cons $50.4B |
MEDIUM |
| APO |
Guide |
FY2026 FRE growth guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~20%+ vs. cons ~19% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| APO |
Guide |
FY2026 SRE growth guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~10% vs. cons ~10% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| APO |
Guide |
Athene net spread guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~122bps vs. cons ~120bps (FY2026) |
LOW |
| APO |
Guide |
ADS/BDC net redemption outflows |
LOWER |
guide ~$450M net outflow vs. cons ~$400M (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| APO |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.8% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| APO |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.4% (FADE) |
Initial pop driven by an EPS/FRE beat that's partly non-recurring (alts-income normalization already flagged July 1) and a guidance reaffirmation; but out-period risk—ADS/BDC redemptions flagged to persist another 1-2 quarters, competitive annuity-spread pressure, and the Aug 7 easyJet firm-offer deadline requiring capital commitment—gives the Street reason to trim forward estimates even after a headline beat, fading most of the day-1 gain over the week. |
LOW |