APO Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
APO Report Adjusted Net Income / EPS BEAT pred ~$2.20 vs. cons $2.15 MEDIUM
APO Report Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) BEAT pred ~$780M vs. cons $755M MEDIUM
APO Report Net Inflows / Capital Formation MISS pred ~$46B vs. cons $50.4B MEDIUM
APO Guide FY2026 FRE growth guidance BETTER guide ~20%+ vs. cons ~19% (FY2026) MEDIUM
APO Guide FY2026 SRE growth guidance UNCHANGED guide ~10% vs. cons ~10% (FY2026) MEDIUM
APO Guide Athene net spread guidance UNCHANGED guide ~122bps vs. cons ~120bps (FY2026) LOW
APO Guide ADS/BDC net redemption outflows LOWER guide ~$450M net outflow vs. cons ~$400M (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
APO Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% MEDIUM
APO Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.4% (FADE) Initial pop driven by an EPS/FRE beat that's partly non-recurring (alts-income normalization already flagged July 1) and a guidance reaffirmation; but out-period risk—ADS/BDC redemptions flagged to persist another 1-2 quarters, competitive annuity-spread pressure, and the Aug 7 easyJet firm-offer deadline requiring capital commitment—gives the Street reason to trim forward estimates even after a headline beat, fading most of the day-1 gain over the week. LOW