{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Net Income / EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.20 vs. cons $2.15",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Fee-Related Earnings (FRE)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$780M vs. cons $755M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net Inflows / Capital Formation",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$46B vs. cons $50.4B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 FRE growth guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~20%+ vs. cons ~19% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 SRE growth guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~10% vs. cons ~10% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Athene net spread guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~122bps vs. cons ~120bps (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "ADS/BDC net redemption outflows",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$450M net outflow vs. cons ~$400M (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.4,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Initial pop driven by an EPS/FRE beat that's partly non-recurring (alts-income normalization already flagged July 1) and a guidance reaffirmation; but out-period risk\u2014ADS/BDC redemptions flagged to persist another 1-2 quarters, competitive annuity-spread pressure, and the Aug 7 easyJet firm-offer deadline requiring capital commitment\u2014gives the Street reason to trim forward estimates even after a headline beat, fading most of the day-1 gain over the week.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}