APO Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
APO Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$2.20 vs. cons $2.15 MEDIUM
APO Report Organic capital formation BEAT pred ~$53.0B vs. cons $50.4B MEDIUM
APO Report Origination volume BEAT pred ~$95B vs. cons $90B MEDIUM
APO Guide Fee Related Earnings growth UNCHANGED guide ~20%+ vs. cons 20% (FY2026) HIGH
APO Guide Spread Related Earnings growth UNCHANGED guide ~10% vs. cons 10% (FY2026) MEDIUM
APO Guide Origination volume UNCHANGED guide ~$350B midpoint vs. cons $350B (FY2026) MEDIUM
APO Guide Athene normalized net spread UNCHANGED guide ~122.5 bps midpoint vs. cons 122.5 bps (FY2026) MEDIUM
APO Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.2% MEDIUM
APO Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.4% (FADE) Initial upside from pred ~$2.20 vs. cons $2.15 EPS and ~$95B vs. $90B origination should fade as the unchanged ~10% vs. 10% FY2026 SRE outlook still requires an ~11% second-half alternatives return after ~9% in Q2, limiting out-period estimate revisions. MEDIUM