{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.20 vs. cons $2.15",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Organic capital formation",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$53.0B vs. cons $50.4B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Origination volume",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$95B vs. cons $90B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Fee Related Earnings growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~20%+ vs. cons 20% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Spread Related Earnings growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~10% vs. cons 10% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Origination volume",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$350B midpoint vs. cons $350B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Athene normalized net spread",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~122.5 bps midpoint vs. cons 122.5 bps (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 3.2,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 1.4,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Initial upside from pred ~$2.20 vs. cons $2.15 EPS and ~$95B vs. $90B origination should fade as the unchanged ~10% vs. 10% FY2026 SRE outlook still requires an ~11% second-half alternatives return after ~9% in Q2, limiting out-period estimate revisions.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}