APO Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
APO Report Adjusted net income per share BEAT pred ~$2.23 vs. cons $2.15 MEDIUM
APO Report Fee-related earnings BEAT pred ~$776M vs. cons $764M MEDIUM
APO Report Spread-related earnings BEAT pred ~$852M vs. cons $837M MEDIUM
APO Guide 2026 fee-related earnings growth UNCHANGED guide ~20%+ vs. cons 20% (FY2026) HIGH
APO Guide 2026 spread-related earnings growth UNCHANGED guide ~10% vs. cons 10% (FY2026) MEDIUM
APO Guide Alternative-investment return assumption underlying SRE outlook UNCHANGED guide ~11% vs. cons 11% (FY2026) MEDIUM
APO Guide Athene normalized net spread UNCHANGED guide ~120-125 bps vs. cons 123 bps (FY2026) MEDIUM
APO Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.0% MEDIUM
APO Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.5% (FADE) The ~$2.23 EPS beat versus $2.15 consensus and stronger FRE/SRE should initially support the shares, but the already-preannounced 9% alternative return remains below the 11% assumption supporting FY2026 SRE guidance. Reaffirming 10% SRE growth without raising the return assumption leaves second-half SRE math demanding and is likely to pull out-period estimates modestly lower after the initial beat. MEDIUM