{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted net income per share",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.23 vs. cons $2.15",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Fee-related earnings",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$776M vs. cons $764M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Spread-related earnings",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$852M vs. cons $837M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "2026 fee-related earnings growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~20%+ vs. cons 20% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2026 spread-related earnings growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~10% vs. cons 10% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Alternative-investment return assumption underlying SRE outlook",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~11% vs. cons 11% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Athene normalized net spread",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~120-125 bps vs. cons 123 bps (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "The ~$2.23 EPS beat versus $2.15 consensus and stronger FRE/SRE should initially support the shares, but the already-preannounced 9% alternative return remains below the 11% assumption supporting FY2026 SRE guidance. Reaffirming 10% SRE growth without raising the return assumption leaves second-half SRE math demanding and is likely to pull out-period estimates modestly lower after the initial beat.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}