APO Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
APO Report Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) BEAT pred ~$810M vs. cons $767M MEDIUM
APO Report SRE (Operating) MISS pred ~$850M vs. cons $872M MEDIUM
APO Report Gross Capital Deployment BEAT pred ~$100B vs. cons $97B MEDIUM
APO Guide FY 2026 FRE (FY 2026) UNCHANGED guide reaffirm ~$3,100-3,200M vs. cons $3,109M HIGH
APO Guide FY 2026 SRE (FY 2026) UNCHANGED guide reaffirm ~$3,500M vs. cons $3,510M MEDIUM
APO Guide Q3 Origination/Pipeline Commentary (Q3 2026) BETTER guide 'strong/in line with Q2' vs. cons ~$97B MEDIUM
APO Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% MEDIUM
APO Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.0% (STABILIZE) STABILIZE — FRE beat provides floor; SRE miss and implicit FY out-period cut cap upside; no meaningful follow-through MEDIUM