APO Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
APO Report Fee-related earnings BEAT pred ~$780M vs. cons $766.5M MEDIUM
APO Report Spread-related earnings MISS pred ~$860M vs. cons $874.4M MEDIUM
APO Report Gross capital deployment BEAT pred ~$100B vs. cons $96.6B MEDIUM
APO Guide FRE growth (FY26) LOWER guide 20%+ floor, ~$3.03B, vs. cons $3.11B LOW
APO Guide SRE growth (FY26) BETTER guide 10%, ~$3.70B, vs. cons $3.48B MEDIUM
APO Guide Origination / ACS commentary (Q3) UNCHANGED strong pipeline commentary vs. UNVERIFIED consensus LOW
APO Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.0% LOW
APO Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FOLLOW-THROUGH — SRE estimate risk outweighs a FRE/deployment beat LOW