{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Fee-related earnings",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$780M vs. cons $766.5M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Spread-related earnings",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$860M vs. cons $874.4M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Gross capital deployment",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$100B vs. cons $96.6B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FRE growth (FY26)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide 20%+ floor, ~$3.03B, vs. cons $3.11B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "SRE growth (FY26)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide 10%, ~$3.70B, vs. cons $3.48B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Origination / ACS commentary (Q3)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "strong pipeline commentary vs. UNVERIFIED consensus",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "FOLLOW-THROUGH \u2014 SRE estimate risk outweighs a FRE/deployment beat",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}