APP Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
APP Report Q2 revenue BEAT pred ~$1.97B vs. cons $1.94B MEDIUM
APP Report Q2 adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$1.67B vs. cons $1.63B MEDIUM
APP Report Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin IN-LINE pred ~84.8% vs. cons 84.0% MEDIUM
APP Guide Q3 revenue guidance BETTER guide ~$2.12B vs. cons $2.08B (2026 Q3) MEDIUM
APP Guide Q3 adjusted EBITDA guidance BETTER guide ~$1.80B vs. cons $1.76B (2026 Q3) MEDIUM
APP Guide Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance UNCHANGED guide ~84.8% vs. cons 84.5% (2026 Q3) MEDIUM
APP Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +7.0% MEDIUM
APP Return 5-day cumulative residual +9.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Q3 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance modestly above consensus should lift out-period estimates after the Q2 beat; continued gaming strength and credible consumer-advertising cohort expansion would support positive revisions rather than an initial-pop fade. MEDIUM