APTV Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
APTV Report Adjusted EPS (Q2'26, New Aptiv) BEAT pred ~$1.45 vs. cons $1.40 MEDIUM
APTV Report Net sales (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~$3.33B vs. cons $3.30B MEDIUM
APTV Report Adjusted EBITDA (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~$585M vs. cons $580M LOW
APTV Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS guide UNCHANGED guide maintained ~$5.90 vs. cons ~$5.90 (FY2026) MEDIUM
APTV Guide FY2026 Net sales guide UNCHANGED guide ~$13.0B vs. cons ~$13.0B (FY2026) MEDIUM
APTV Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA / margin UNCHANGED guide ~$2.42B (18.6%) vs. cons ~$2.42B (FY2026) LOW
APTV Guide FY2026 Free cash flow UNCHANGED guide ~$750M vs. cons ~$740M (FY2026) LOW
APTV Guide FY2026 bookings target BETTER guide >$20B vs. cons ~$19-20B (FY2026) LOW
APTV Guide Q3'26 revenue framework (2H reaccel) UNKNOWN guide ~$3.3B vs. cons ~$3.3B (Q3'26) LOW
APTV Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.0% MEDIUM
APTV Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (FADE) Stock is beaten down (~$57 vs ~$68 in June) so a modest EPS beat + maintained FY guide should spark a relief pop day 1. But the FY bar rests on a distrusted H2 hockey-stick (~300bps from 2H launch/ramp timing, China turning positive, fire-customer recovery) plus fresh copper/resin/gold inflation; with Q2 only in-line and no raise, out-period math keeps estimates capped and the auto-demand skepticism reasserts, so most of the initial gain fades over the week. LOW