I'll research APTV before writing the preview. Let me gather recent filings, transcripts, news, and price data.The tools show a one-year offset in the financial-documents fiscal labels. Let me read the most recently reported quarter and the Investor Day to build the preview basis.I have what I need. Below is the earnings preview, built from Aptiv's most recent report (Q1 2026, its final quarter as "Total Aptiv"), its Q2/full-year guidance, and recent trading. Note: this is the first quarter Aptiv reports as "New Aptiv" following the April 1 spin-off of its EDS business into Versigent.
This is the first "clean" quarter for New Aptiv — the two remaining segments (Intelligent Systems and Engineered Components) after the April 1 spin-off of the Electrical Distribution Systems (EDS) business into Versigent. EDS now sits in discontinued operations, so the P&L, growth algorithm, and margin profile all reset. The debate going into the print: can Aptiv deliver the promised second-half reacceleration (guide implies growth building from ~flat in Q1 to +4% for the year) while absorbing a fresh wave of commodity inflation? Management held guidance last quarter; the market wants proof the ramp is real.
Management's Q2 2026 framework (New Aptiv, pro forma ex-EDS):
| Metric | Q2 2026 Guide (range) | Midpoint |
|---|---|---|
| Net sales | $3.20B – $3.40B | ~$3.3B |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $555M – $605M | $580M (17.6% margin) |
| Adjusted EPS | $1.30 – $1.50 | $1.40 |
| Adjusted tax rate | — | ~18.5% |
Guidance calls for ~2% adjusted revenue growth in Q2 — a modest step up from roughly flat in Q1, with the bigger acceleration back-half weighted.
| Metric | FY2026 Guide | Midpoint |
|---|---|---|
| Net sales | $12.8B – $13.2B | ~$13.0B (~4% adj. growth) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $2.36B – $2.48B | ~$2.42B (18.6% margin) |
| Adjusted EPS | $5.70 – $6.10 | ~$5.90 |
| Free cash flow | $650M – $850M | ~$750M |
The full-year revenue guide bakes in an explicit H1→H2 acceleration bridge management laid out: ~100 bps from better vehicle production, ~150 bps from the roll-off of company-specific headwinds (a North American customer's supplier-fire production loss and 2025 China program cancellations that anniversary mid-year), and ~300 bps from the timing of new program launches/ramps. Management flagged the launch/ramp piece as where they overlay the most conservatism — so execution on 2H launches is the key swing factor, and any slippage (especially in China) would be the fastest way to miss the year.
1. Does the reacceleration show up in Q2? Q1 was held back by ~250 bps of headwinds in Intelligent Systems (China program cancellations + the North American supplier fire). Management said China revenue should turn positive in Q2 and that the customer-fire impact partially recovers in 2H. Confirmation of that inflection is the single most important data point.
2. Commodity/input-cost inflation vs. offsets. Management called out incremental inflation in copper, gold, silver, and oil-based resins tied to the Middle East conflict — roughly +50–60 bps of incremental FX/commodity headwind vs. the prior guide, front-loaded into 1H. They insist they can offset via performance initiatives plus customer pass-throughs (citing a 95–100% historical recovery rate), and note recoveries lag ~3–4 months, landing in 2H. Watch whether the offset is holding or whether margin guidance gets pressured.
3. Bookings momentum. Q1 New Aptiv bookings were $4.6B (~15% above the 2025 quarterly run-rate), including ~$900M non-automotive. Management reiterated a >$20B full-year bookings target. A strong Q2 bookings number — particularly in ADAS/next-gen architecture wins and non-auto (aerospace/defense, robotics, drones, data center, energy storage) — validates the growth-reacceleration thesis and the "New Aptiv" diversification story.
4. The diversification metrics. Non-automotive grew high-single digits and software & services grew double digits in Q1. These are the pillars of the standalone equity story (targeting the higher end of a 4–7% long-term growth range through 2028). Look for continued double-digit software growth, which is also seasonally 2H-weighted.
5. Stranded costs and separation cleanup. New Aptiv carries ~$70M of annualized stranded costs it aims to eliminate by end-2027, plus ~$100M of separation costs expected in Q2 (with ~$80M of tax-related payments to be recouped later in the year). These weigh on near-term FCF; watch the cost-out cadence.
6. Capital allocation. Post-spin balance sheet: ~1.9x net / 2.3x gross leverage after paying down ~$2.1B of debt (funded largely by a ~$1.65B dividend from Versigent). Aptiv bought back $75M of stock in Q1 with ~$2.0B remaining on a $5.0B authorization, and diluted share count has already fallen to ~214M from ~230M a year ago. Management flagged bolt-on M&A (industrial/non-auto, sales-force and TAM-expanding deals) as a 2026 priority alongside buybacks — any commentary on deal pipeline or an accelerated repurchase would be a catalyst.
Aptiv shares have been volatile: they sold off hard into the spring on tariff/macro fears (into the high-$40s) before recovering into the high-$60s over the summer, then softening to the mid-$60s heading into the print. That leaves the stock roughly middling on the year and reflects investor skepticism about the 2H ramp and auto-production demand. Because the buy-side already knows the year is back-half loaded, the reaction likely hinges less on the Q2 headline and more on (a) confirmation that China/launches are inflecting, (b) whether FY guidance is maintained/raised despite commodity creep, and (c) bookings. A maintained full-year with visible 2H proof points would likely be received well given depressed sentiment; a launch delay or guidance trim on commodities would hit a stock the market is already treating with caution.
Investors should treat this as a "prove-it" quarter for the newly slimmed-down Aptiv. The numbers themselves (Q2 midpoint ~$3.3B sales / $1.40 EPS) are less important than the qualitative markers: China turning positive, the fire-affected customer recovering, on-time 2H launches, sustained double-digit software and non-auto growth, bookings tracking toward >$20B, and a full-year guide held (or nudged up) despite rising copper/resin costs. Also watch capital-allocation signals — buyback pace and any bolt-on M&A — as the standalone free-cash-flow story is central to the bull case.
Note on the data: the financial-documents source labels Aptiv's most recent reported period as "Q1 2026" (its last combined quarter, with the EDS/Versigent spin completing April 1). All figures above are drawn from that release/call and the associated Q2/FY guidance. I did not incorporate any actual Q2 results into this preview.