ATO Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ATO Report Fiscal Q3 diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.42 vs. cons $1.36 MEDIUM
ATO Report Fiscal Q3 operating revenue IN-LINE pred ~$945M vs. cons $938.5M LOW
ATO Report Nine-month capital expenditures BEAT pred ~$3.15B vs. cons $3.10B MEDIUM
ATO Guide Fiscal 2026 diluted EPS guidance BETTER guide ~$8.45-$8.55, midpoint $8.50 vs. cons $8.44 (FY2026) MEDIUM
ATO Guide Capital-expenditure guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$4.20B vs. cons $4.20B (FY2026) HIGH
ATO Guide Texas Rule 7.7102 pretax benefit UNCHANGED guide ~$160M midpoint vs. cons $160M (FY2026) MEDIUM
ATO Guide O&M expense guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$875M midpoint vs. cons $875M (FY2026) MEDIUM
ATO Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.4% MEDIUM
ATO Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (FADE) A roughly 4.4% Q3 EPS beat and a ~$0.05 midpoint guidance increase should initially support the shares, but implied fiscal Q4 EPS of ~$1.16 versus consensus near $1.16 leaves little room for upward out-period revisions; therefore, the predicted +1.4% day-1 residual fades to +0.5% cumulatively by day 5. MEDIUM