ATO Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ATO Report Operating EPS (Q3 FY2026) BEAT pred ~$1.08 vs. cons $1.019 MEDIUM
ATO Report APT Pipeline Gross Profit (Q3 FY2026) IN-LINE pred ~$295M vs. cons $294M MEDIUM
ATO Report Distribution Gross Profit (Q3 FY2026) BEAT pred ~$570M vs. cons $550M MEDIUM
ATO Guide FY2026 Operating EPS (FY2026) BETTER guide ~$8.45-$8.55 vs. cons $8.452 MEDIUM
ATO Guide FY2026 Capex (FY2026) UNCHANGED guide ~$4.2B reaffirmed vs. cons $4.136B HIGH
ATO Guide APT H2 Through-System (Q4 FY2026 qualitative) UNCHANGED modest Q4 contribution, Waha still challenged vs. embedded in $8.45 FY cons MEDIUM
ATO Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.0% MEDIUM
ATO Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.5% (STABILIZE) STABILIZE — initial pop holds but does not compound; marginal FY raise drives modest upward estimate revisions, offset by Waha sustainability Q&A and management declining to guide FY2027 Waha assumptions MEDIUM