| AXON |
Report |
Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$885M vs. cons $868M |
MEDIUM |
| AXON |
Report |
Non-GAAP EPS |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$1.90 vs. cons $1.89 |
LOW |
| AXON |
Report |
ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.55B vs. cons $1.53B |
MEDIUM |
| AXON |
Guide |
FY2026 revenue (raise) |
BETTER |
guide ~$3.70B / ~33% vs. cons $3.65B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AXON |
Guide |
FY2026 adj. EBITDA margin |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~25.5% vs. cons 25.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AXON |
Guide |
Future contracted bookings growth |
BETTER |
guide/actual ~+40% y/y (~$15B backlog) vs. cons ~+35% (Q2/exit-2026) |
LOW |
| AXON |
Guide |
Adj. gross margin trajectory (H2 leverage) |
UNKNOWN |
pred ~61.5% vs. cons ~62% (Q2 2026) |
LOW |
| AXON |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.5% |
— |
LOW |
| AXON |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-4.5% (FADE) |
Even a likely beat-and-raise is discounted after a ~24% two-week run (incl. +15% in the last two sessions) into a rich multiple; the bar prices near-perfection. Out-period math is unfavorable — EPS is down y/y on tough tax comps, adj. gross margin is compressing (tariffs, memory inflation, Dedrone mix), and the ~$450M FCF target is heavily back-half loaded — so upward revisions are capped and net EPS estimates can drift lower even after a top-line beat. Stretched positioning + insider Form 144 selling favor a sell-the-news fade over the week. |
LOW |