| AXON |
Report |
Total Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$895M vs. cons $872M |
HIGH |
| AXON |
Report |
Non-GAAP EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.95 vs. cons $1.89 |
MEDIUM |
| AXON |
Report |
Software & Services Segment Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$405M vs. cons $390M |
MEDIUM |
| AXON |
Guide |
FY2026 Revenue Growth Guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~30-32% (mid ~31%) vs. cons ~31% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AXON |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin Guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~25.5% vs. cons 25.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AXON |
Guide |
FY2026 Free Cash Flow Guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$450M vs. cons ~$450M (FY2026) |
LOW |
| AXON |
Guide |
Future Contracted Bookings Growth (commentary) |
BETTER |
guide/commentary ~32% YoY vs. implicit cons ~30% (Q2 2026 TTM bookings pace) |
LOW |
| AXON |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-3.0% |
— |
LOW |
| AXON |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-5.5% (FADE) |
Stock ran ~80% off the April low and ~23% in the two weeks pre-print (491→607), pricing in a beat-and-raise plus ICE-contract optimism. Base case is Axon delivers modest revenue/EPS/segment beats but merely REITERATES FY26 growth (30-32%), EBITDA margin (25.5%) and FCF (~$450M) guidance rather than raising again after Q1's big upward revision — an implicit deceleration versus the run-rate embedded in the stock. With ICE's $220M Taser RFI still reportedly stalled (DHS leadership shake-up, pricing) and no confirmation likely on the call, a key speculative catalyst goes unresolved. That combination (good-not-great print, unchanged full-year math implying tougher 2H comps, unresolved federal catalyst) typically triggers sell-the-news profit-taking that builds over the week as sell-side models trim out-quarter estimates and momentum longs de-risk after the parabolic run, rather than a durable re-rating higher. |
LOW |