{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$895M vs. cons $872M",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Non-GAAP EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.95 vs. cons $1.89",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Software & Services Segment Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$405M vs. cons $390M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Revenue Growth Guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~30-32% (mid ~31%) vs. cons ~31% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin Guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~25.5% vs. cons 25.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Free Cash Flow Guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$450M vs. cons ~$450M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Future Contracted Bookings Growth (commentary)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide/commentary ~32% YoY vs. implicit cons ~30% (Q2 2026 TTM bookings pace)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -5.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock ran ~80% off the April low and ~23% in the two weeks pre-print (491\u2192607), pricing in a beat-and-raise plus ICE-contract optimism. Base case is Axon delivers modest revenue/EPS/segment beats but merely REITERATES FY26 growth (30-32%), EBITDA margin (25.5%) and FCF (~$450M) guidance rather than raising again after Q1's big upward revision \u2014 an implicit deceleration versus the run-rate embedded in the stock. With ICE's $220M Taser RFI still reportedly stalled (DHS leadership shake-up, pricing) and no confirmation likely on the call, a key speculative catalyst goes unresolved. That combination (good-not-great print, unchanged full-year math implying tougher 2H comps, unresolved federal catalyst) typically triggers sell-the-news profit-taking that builds over the week as sell-side models trim out-quarter estimates and momentum longs de-risk after the parabolic run, rather than a durable re-rating higher.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}