AXON Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AXON Report Q2 2026 revenue BEAT pred ~$894M vs. cons $876.5M MEDIUM
AXON Report Q2 2026 annual recurring revenue BEAT pred ~$1.62B vs. cons $1.60B MEDIUM
AXON Report Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$224M vs. cons $219M LOW
AXON Guide FY2026 revenue BETTER guide ~$3.70B vs. cons $3.66B (FY2026) MEDIUM
AXON Guide FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin UNCHANGED guide ~25.5% vs. cons 25.5% (FY2026) HIGH
AXON Guide FY2026 free cash flow BETTER guide ~$450M vs. cons $432M (FY2026) MEDIUM
AXON Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.5% MEDIUM
AXON Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.5% (FADE) A ~$17.5M Q2 revenue beat paired with FY2026 guidance only ~$40M above consensus implies roughly $2.00B of second-half revenue versus approximately $1.98B embedded in consensus. That supports modest estimate revisions, but the limited out-period uplift and the stock's sharp pre-report rally should cause part of the initial reaction to fade. MEDIUM