| BALL |
Report |
Comparable diluted EPS (Q2) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.02 vs. cons $0.99 |
MEDIUM |
| BALL |
Report |
Net sales (Q2) |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.55B vs. cons $3.45B |
LOW |
| BALL |
Report |
Enterprise volume growth YoY (Q2) |
BEAT |
pred ~+4% vs. cons ~+2.5% |
MEDIUM |
| BALL |
Guide |
FY2026 comparable EPS growth algorithm |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~10%+ vs. cons ~10% (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| BALL |
Guide |
FY2026 free cash flow |
UNCHANGED |
guide >$900M vs. cons ~$900M (FY26) |
LOW |
| BALL |
Guide |
Millersburg/end-domestication start-up cost drag |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$35M vs. cons ~$35M (H2/Q3-weighted) |
MEDIUM |
| BALL |
Guide |
FY2026 capital returns to shareholders |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$800M vs. cons ~$800M (FY26) |
LOW |
| BALL |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.0% |
— |
LOW |
| BALL |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-2.0% (FADE) |
A likely EPS/volume beat with a reaffirmed (not raised) 10%+ EPS algorithm gets a muted reward because shares already re-rated ~24% off lows and ran ~8% into the print, leaving a high bar. The out-period math drives the fade: management pre-flagged ~$35M of Millersburg/end-domestication start-up costs hitting later in Q2 and heavily in Q3, so a good Q2 forces analysts to trim Q3 NCA operating-leverage/EPS estimates even after the beat. That implicit near-term cut, plus 'sold-out for 2026 but no upside surprise to the algorithm' framing, pulls the initial pop back toward flat over the following week. |
MEDIUM |