{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Comparable diluted EPS (Q2)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.02 vs. cons $0.99",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net sales (Q2)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.55B vs. cons $3.45B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Enterprise volume growth YoY (Q2)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~+4% vs. cons ~+2.5%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 comparable EPS growth algorithm",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~10%+ vs. cons ~10% (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 free cash flow",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide >$900M vs. cons ~$900M (FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Millersburg/end-domestication start-up cost drag",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$35M vs. cons ~$35M (H2/Q3-weighted)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 capital returns to shareholders",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$800M vs. cons ~$800M (FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A likely EPS/volume beat with a reaffirmed (not raised) 10%+ EPS algorithm gets a muted reward because shares already re-rated ~24% off lows and ran ~8% into the print, leaving a high bar. The out-period math drives the fade: management pre-flagged ~$35M of Millersburg/end-domestication start-up costs hitting later in Q2 and heavily in Q3, so a good Q2 forces analysts to trim Q3 NCA operating-leverage/EPS estimates even after the beat. That implicit near-term cut, plus 'sold-out for 2026 but no upside surprise to the algorithm' framing, pulls the initial pop back toward flat over the following week.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}