BALL Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
BALL Report Comparable diluted EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$1.02 vs. cons $0.99 MEDIUM
BALL Report Net sales (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$3.72B vs. cons $3.68B MEDIUM
BALL Report North & Central America comparable operating earnings growth (Q2'26) MISS pred ~+1% vs. cons ~+3% MEDIUM
BALL Guide FY2026 comparable diluted EPS growth UNCHANGED guide ~10%+ vs. cons ~10% (FY2026) MEDIUM
BALL Guide FY2026 free cash flow UNCHANGED guide ~$900M+ vs. cons ~$900M (FY2026) MEDIUM
BALL Guide Millersburg/US end-domestication startup cost drag LOWER guide ~$35M vs. cons ~$20-25M (Q3-Q4 2026) LOW
BALL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.5% MEDIUM
BALL Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Stock has rallied ~25% off June lows to near-highs into the print (avg PT $69-71 offers limited remaining upside), raising the bar for a 'good' Q2 beat to actually hold. BALL has a recent history of selling off idiosyncratically on beat quarters (Aug'25 Q2: -5.6% residual; May'26 Q1: -6.5% residual) even as headline EPS/sales topped consensus, suggesting the market discounts near-term beats and instead trades off forward margin/cost commentary. Management has already flagged ~$35M of Millersburg startup and U.S. end-domestication costs hitting 'heavily' in Q3 and partly Q4 — if this quarter's call reiterates or sizes this cost headwind larger than modeled, sell-side will likely trim H2/FY26 NCA segment margin and EPS estimates even off a Q2 beat, producing continued downward drift (follow-through) over the following days rather than a snap-back, as was the pattern following the May print. LOW