{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Comparable diluted EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.02 vs. cons $0.99",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net sales (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.72B vs. cons $3.68B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "North & Central America comparable operating earnings growth (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~+1% vs. cons ~+3%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 comparable diluted EPS growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~10%+ vs. cons ~10% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 free cash flow",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$900M+ vs. cons ~$900M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Millersburg/US end-domestication startup cost drag",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$35M vs. cons ~$20-25M (Q3-Q4 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock has rallied ~25% off June lows to near-highs into the print (avg PT $69-71 offers limited remaining upside), raising the bar for a 'good' Q2 beat to actually hold. BALL has a recent history of selling off idiosyncratically on beat quarters (Aug'25 Q2: -5.6% residual; May'26 Q1: -6.5% residual) even as headline EPS/sales topped consensus, suggesting the market discounts near-term beats and instead trades off forward margin/cost commentary. Management has already flagged ~$35M of Millersburg startup and U.S. end-domestication costs hitting 'heavily' in Q3 and partly Q4 \u2014 if this quarter's call reiterates or sizes this cost headwind larger than modeled, sell-side will likely trim H2/FY26 NCA segment margin and EPS estimates even off a Q2 beat, producing continued downward drift (follow-through) over the following days rather than a snap-back, as was the pattern following the May print.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}