Ticker | BDX |
Upcoming Earnings Date | August 7, 2026 (est.) |
Reporting Period | Fiscal Q3 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) |
Last Earnings Date | May 7, 2026 (Fiscal Q2 2026) |
Prepared | August 5, 2026 |
Sector ETF | XLV (Health Care Select Sector SPDR) |
Key Takeaway: The setup into BDX’s Q3 FY26 print is modestly constructive — consensus has been reset lower since the Q2 print and the bar is achievable — but the single biggest swing factor is whether the Chloraprep ship hold (resolved ~3 weeks post-Q2 earnings) created any measurable revenue leakage in the quarter, and whether management’s back-half margin bridge holds up against a still-elevated tariff backdrop.
Heading into the Q3 FY26 print, BDX’s setup is one of a low-but-achievable bar with a clear path to a modest beat if execution holds. Consensus organic revenue growth sits at roughly 2.6% for the quarter, consistent with the first-half run rate management guided to, and the company’s 90%-plus of portfolio growing mid-single digits provides a durable base. The voluntary Chloraprep/PurePrep ship hold — initiated May 7 and expected to last ~3 weeks — was the key post-Q2 wildcard; if distributor channel inventory fully bridged hospital demand as management indicated, the revenue impact should be negligible, but any shortfall would be a negative surprise. On margins, the Q3 adjusted operating margin is expected to step up sequentially toward the full-year 25% target, supported by BD Excellence productivity (~8% run rate), the $200M cost-out program (with $150M already in motion), and a favorable tariff comparison building into Q4; however, tariffs remain a ~160 bps gross margin headwind and any escalation would pressure the back-half bridge. The stock has recovered from its post-Q2 lows (up ~11% from the May 7 close of $153.26 to ~$170.66 as of August 5), outperforming XLV but still trading at a meaningful discount to intrinsic value per management’s own framing, suggesting the market has not fully priced in a beat. The wildcard is
China trajectory: peers (DHR, ABT) are signaling VBP headwinds are moderating, which could provide a modest upside surprise to BDX’s guided mid-teens China decline if volumes stabilize faster than expected. The July 22 announcement of EVP Michael Garrison’s retirement and the BioPharma Systems segment reporting directly to CEO Polen adds a modest organizational uncertainty heading into the print.
Key Takeaway: Consensus is a
Key Takeaway: Consensus is a low-to-moderate bar — organic revenue growth of ~2.6% is in line with management’s guided “roughly similar to H1” trajectory, and adjusted EPS of ~$3.14 implies a step-up from Q2’s $2.90 that is achievable given the cost-out program and tariff comparison.
The bigger swing factor is adjusted EPS — any upside from Chloraprep resolution, China stabilization, or BD Excellence outperformance flows directly to the bottom line given the high operating leverage in the model.
KPI | Q2 FY26 Actual (Last Qtr) | Q3 FY25 Actual (Prior Year) | Q3 FY26 Consensus Estimate | YoY Change (Est.) | Guidance (FY26 Full Year) | Consensus vs. Guidance |
Total Revenue ($B) | $4.714B | $4.726B | $4.890B | +3.5% YoY | Low single-digit FY growth | In line with guided trajectory |
Organic Revenue Growth (%) | +2.6% | +4.0% | ~+2.6% | -140 bps YoY | Low single-digit FY | In line |
Adj. EPS - Diluted - Operating ($) | $2.90 | $3.08 | $3.14 | +2.0% YoY | $12.52–$12.72 FY | ~$0.48 below FY midpoint run rate; back-half weighted |
Medical Mgmt. Solutions ($M) | $828M | $888M | $897M | +1.0% YoY | N/A (segment) | N/A |
BioPharma Systems ($M) | $590M | $629M | $637M | +1.3% YoY | N/A (segment) | N/A |
Interventional ($M) | $1,357M | $1,329M | $1,396M | +5.1% YoY | N/A (segment) | N/A |
Surgery ($M) | $412M | $395M | $417M | +5.6% YoY | N/A (segment) | N/A |
Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (Total Revenue, Organic Growth, Adj. EPS, segment revenues). FY26 guidance from Q2 FY26 earnings call (May 7, 2026) and Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference (May 12, 2026).
Quarter | KPI | Reported | Consensus | Surprise % | Result |
Q2 FY26 (May 2026) | Total Revenue | $4.714B | $4.675B | +0.8% | Beat |
Q2 FY26 (May 2026) | Adj. EPS | $2.90 | $2.78 | +4.3% | Beat |
Q1 FY26 (Feb 2026) | Total Revenue | $4.486B | $5.146B | N/A* | Note: Waters separation recast |
Q1 FY26 (Feb 2026) | Adj. EPS | $2.50 | $2.81 | N/A* | Note: Waters separation recast |
Q4 FY25 (Nov 2025) | Total Revenue | $5.005B | $5.914B | N/A* | Note: Pre-separation basis |
Q4 FY25 (Nov 2025) | Adj. EPS | $3.26 | $3.92 | N/A* | Note: Pre-separation basis |
Q3 FY25 (Aug 2025) | Total Revenue | $4.726B | $5.483B | N/A* | Note: Pre-separation basis |
Q3 FY25 (Aug 2025) | Adj. EPS | $3.08 | $3.40 | N/A* | Note: Pre-separation basis |
Q2 FY25 (May 2025) | Total Revenue | $4.480B | $5.353B | N/A* | Note: Pre-separation basis |
Q2 FY25 (May 2025) | Adj. EPS | $2.79 | $3.28 | N/A* | Note: Pre-separation basis |
* Note: Quarters prior to Q2 FY26 reflect the pre-Waters-separation consolidated BDX (including Life Sciences), making direct consensus comparisons to the new BDX perimeter not meaningful. Q2 FY26 is the first clean comparable quarter on the new basis. BDX beat on both revenue and adjusted EPS in Q2 FY26, the first clean post-separation print.
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
Key Takeaway: Guidance has been
Key Takeaway: Guidance has been
Key Takeaway: Guidance has been net-positive since the Q2 print — full-year adjusted EPS was raised at the midpoint to $12.52–$12.72 — while revenue guidance was reaffirmed at low single digits. Tone is constructive but deliberately prudent, with management explicitly not building in macro improvements.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q2 FY26 Earnings Call, May 7, 2026) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
FY26 Total Revenue Growth | Low single digits; H2 growth roughly similar to H1 | — | ~+2.5% organic (FY) | Unchanged; management explicitly not building in macro improvement |
FY26 Adj. EPS | $12.52–$12.72 (raised from prior range at Q2 print) | — | $12.61 (midpoint) | ↑ Raised at Q2 earnings; reflects H1 beat and improved visibility; consensus at midpoint |
FY26 Adj. Operating Margin | ~25%, inclusive of tariff impact | — | ~25% | Unchanged; Q4 expected to carry largest step-up driven by cost-out program and tariff comparison |
FY26 Adj. Tax Rate | 16%–17% | — | ~16–17% | Unchanged |
FX Impact on Revenue | ~+120 bps tailwind (based on spot rates at Q2 call) | — | N/A (not separately tracked in consensus) | Unchanged; FX a modest tailwind at current rates |
Tariff Headwind (FY26) | ~$185M (improved from prior $275M estimate) | — | N/A | Unchanged; Q4 FY26 expected to have favorable tariff comparison vs. Q4 FY25 (~$90M in Q4 FY25) |
Alaris Headwind (FY26) | ~100 bps revenue headwind | — | N/A | Unchanged; FY27 headwind expected to step up to ~200 bps; FY28 no longer a headwind |
China Revenue Trajectory | Mid-teens decline; ~4% of New BD revenue | — | N/A | Unchanged; 80% of portfolio through VBP by end FY26; most uncertain of the three headwinds |
Source: BDX Q2 FY26 Earnings Call (May 7, 2026); BDX Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference (May 12, 2026); BDX 8-K (July 22, 2026).
Key Takeaway: Estimates for Q3 FY26 adjusted EPS have been revised
Key Takeaway: Estimates for Q3 FY26 adjusted EPS have been revised
Key Takeaway: Estimates for Q3 FY26 adjusted EPS have been revised meaningfully lower since the Q2 print (from ~$3.14 post-Q2 to ~$3.14 currently, essentially flat), while revenue estimates are also stable — suggesting the street has fully digested the Q2 guidance and is not building in incremental upside. The gap between current consensus and the FY guidance midpoint implies a significant Q4 back-loading, which is consistent with management’s own bridge (cost-out program, tariff comparison, BD Excellence step-up).
KPI (Period) | Estimate ~5 Days Post Q2 Earnings (as of 5/14/26) | Current Consensus (as of 8/5/26) | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q2 Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance (%) |
Total Revenue — Q3 FY26 | $4.883B | $4.890B | +0.1% | Low single-digit FY growth; H2 ~= H1 | Unchanged | — | In line |
Adj. EPS — Q3 FY26 | $3.144 | $3.142 | -0.1% | FY $12.52–$12.72 | Unchanged | — | ~$3.14 implies Q4 needs ~$3.55+ to hit midpoint; achievable per mgmt bridge |
Total Revenue — FY26 | $19.205B | $19.218B | +0.1% | Low single-digit growth | Unchanged | — | In line |
Adj. EPS — FY26 | $12.607 | $12.610 | +0.0% | $12.52–$12.72 | Unchanged | — | Consensus at midpoint; ~$0.05 above midpoint |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Post-Q2 baseline as of May 14, 2026 (5 trading days post-earnings). Current consensus as of August 5, 2026.
Commentary: Estimates have been remarkably stable since the Q2 print — both revenue and EPS are essentially unchanged — indicating the street has high conviction in management’s guided trajectory. The key risk is that the Q4 step-up (implied ~$3.55+ EPS) is back-loaded and dependent on the cost-out program flowing through, tariff comparison favorability, and BD Excellence productivity. If Q3 comes in at or above consensus, the Q4 bridge becomes more credible and could be a positive catalyst.
Key Takeaway: BDX has outperformed XLV since the Q2 print (+11.3% vs. XLV +13.4% and SPY +5.2%), driven primarily by
Key Takeaway: BDX has recovered +11.3% since the Q2 earnings close (May 7: $153.26 → Aug 5: $170.66), lagging XLV (+13.4%) but outperforming SPY (+5.2%) on an absolute basis. The recovery was driven by the EPS guidance raise and broad-based portfolio execution, though BDX has underperformed XLV, suggesting sector rotation and the Chloraprep/FDA warning letter overhang weighed on relative performance. The stock remains well below its 52-week highs and management’s own “significant undervaluation” framing, leaving room for multiple re-rating if Q3 execution is clean.
Date / Event | BDX Price | BDX Indexed (Base=100) | XLV Indexed | SPY Indexed |
May 7, 2026 (Q2 Earnings) | $153.26 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
May 12, 2026 (BofA Healthcare Conf.) | $147.51 | 96.2 | 100.8 | 100.9 |
May 29, 2026 (8-K: Chloraprep update) | $147.12 | 96.0 | 103.3 | 103.4 |
June 30, 2026 (Quarter End) | $151.33 | 98.7 | 109.6 | 102.1 |
July 22, 2026 (8-K: Garrison retirement) | $153.16 | 99.9 | 110.2 | 102.2 |
July 28, 2026 (BSX earnings read-through) | $166.34 | 108.5 | 115.6 | 101.3 |
August 5, 2026 (Preparation Date) | $170.66 | 111.3 | 113.4 | 105.2 |
Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data. XLV = Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (appropriate sub-sector benchmark for BDX as a large-cap diversified medtech/diagnostics company). All prices are closing prices.
Performance Summary: BDX +11.3% | XLV +13.4% | SPY +5.2% since Q2 FY26 earnings (May 7 – Aug 5, 2026). BDX underperformed XLV by ~210 bps over the period, with the gap widening in June as the Chloraprep ship hold and FDA warning letter weighed on sentiment. The stock re-accelerated in late July, likely driven by positive peer read-throughs from BSX (July 29) and SYK (July 30) earnings, which signaled stable-to-strong procedure volumes and hospital capital spending.
Key Takeaway: The most important post-Q2 development is the
Key Takeaway: The most important post-Q2 development is the
Key Takeaway: The most important post-Q2 development is the resolution of the Chloraprep ship hold (expected ~3 weeks from May 7) and the July 22 announcement of EVP Michael Garrison’s retirement, which introduces modest organizational uncertainty into the BioPharma Systems segment heading into the print.
Key Takeaway: All insider transactions since the Q2 print are
Key Takeaway: All insider transactions since the Q2 print are pre-planned 10b5-1 sales — nothing discretionary or unusual. The absence of open-market buys is notable given management’s own “significant undervaluation” rhetoric, but the 10b5-1 nature of all sales means they carry no negative signal.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Shares | Approx. Value | Transaction Date | Note |
Michael Feld | EVP, Chief Revenue Officer | 10b5-1 Planned Sale | 75 | ~$12,800 | July 27, 2026 | Pre-planned; small routine sale; no discretionary signal |
Michael Feld | EVP, Chief Revenue Officer | 10b5-1 Planned Sale | 75 | ~$11,700 | June 26, 2026 | Pre-planned; small routine sale; no discretionary signal |
Michael D. Garrison | EVP & Pres., Medical Essentials & BioPharma Systems | 10b5-1 Planned Sale | 1,100 | ~$162,600 | June 24, 2026 | Pre-planned; Garrison subsequently announced retirement July 22; sale predates announcement |
Michael D. Garrison | EVP & Pres., Medical Essentials & BioPharma Systems | 10b5-1 Planned Sale | 1,100 | ~$162,600 | June 10, 2026 | Pre-planned; routine; no discretionary signal |
Michael Feld | EVP, Chief Revenue Officer | 10b5-1 Planned Sale | 75 | ~$11,100 | May 26, 2026 | Pre-planned; small routine sale; no discretionary signal |
Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database. Open-market buys (code P) and sells (code S) only; all transactions above are code S (disposition). All transactions flagged as 10b5-1 pre-planned sales. Approximate values estimated using transaction-date closing prices.
Assessment: No open-market buys were filed in the period. All sales are small, routine, and pre-planned under 10b5-1 programs — no discretionary selling signal. Garrison’s June sales predate his July 22 retirement announcement and were pre-planned, so they carry no informational content about the retirement decision. The absence of any open-market buying by insiders, despite management’s repeated “significant undervaluation” commentary, is worth noting but is not unusual for a company actively deploying capital through a corporate buyback program.
Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the last 60 days is broadly constructive for BDX’s Q3 FY26 setup:
Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the last 60 days is broadly constructive for BDX’s Q3 FY26 setup: procedure volumes are stable-to-strong (SYK, ABT), hospital capital spending is elevated (SYK), China VBP headwinds are moderating (DHR, ABT), biopharma/bioprocessing demand is healthy (DHR), and diagnostics demand is robust (ABT). The one cautionary note is BSX’s guidance for only 3–5% organic growth in Q3, suggesting the broader medtech environment is not uniformly accelerating.
Methodology: Only forward-looking commentary about the current reporting quarter (calendar Q3 2026 / BDX’s Q3 FY26, ending June 30, 2026) or the second half of 2026 is included below. Commentary solely about peers’ own reported prior-quarter results has been excluded.
Peer | Report Date | Topic | Key Forward-Looking Commentary | BDX Read-Through | Signal |
Abbott (ABT) | July 16, 2026 | Procedure Volumes / Diagnostics Demand | Diagnostic test volume data from instruments globally “continues to reflect strong and stable demand for testing.” U.S. hospital core lab business up 13% in Q2; testing volumes “held up very well” including in states with highest ACA disenrollment. ABT “not seeing” a deceleration in procedure volumes. Healthcare demand expected to “continue to accelerate” driven by aging population (10,000 people turn 65 daily in the U.S.). | Directly positive for BDX’s Integrated Diagnostic Solutions, Medical Essentials (blood collection, vascular access), and Interventional segments. Stable-to-strong utilization supports BDX’s consumables-heavy revenue base (>90% consumables). | Positive |
Abbott (ABT) | July 16, 2026 | China VBP Trajectory | ABT forecasting China business decline of “much, much lower mid-single digits” in H2 2026, vs. prior ~30% declines over five quarters from VBP. Significant moderation of VBP headwind expected. | Directly relevant. BDX guided to mid-teens China decline in FY26 with 80% of portfolio through VBP by year-end. ABT’s moderation signal suggests BDX’s China trajectory could also stabilize faster than feared, potentially providing upside to the guided decline rate. | Positive |
Abbott (ABT) | July 16, 2026 | Cancer Diagnostics / H2 Demand | ABT expects cancer diagnostics growth in H2 2026 to be “higher than the first half,” supported by care gap programs (health systems achieving HEDIS credits, STAR ratings) that “tend to happen in the second half.” ABT has “a lot of visibility” to these programs. | Positive for BDX’s Diagnostic Solutions segment. H2 seasonality in diagnostic testing driven by health system quality programs is a tailwind for BDX’s specimen management and diagnostic platforms. | Positive |
Danaher (DHR) | July 21, 2026 | Biopharma / Bioprocessing Demand | Underlying bioprocessing demand “remained very healthy” with mid-teens order growth in both consumables and equipment. Expects onshoring activity to accelerate and commercial production to remain robust (especially monoclonal antibodies). New molecules progressing through development pipelines. DHR raised its full-year life sciences guide, expecting faster-than-expected market recovery. | Directly positive for BDX’s BioPharma Systems segment (biologics/GLP-1 drug delivery). Healthy bioprocessing demand and accelerating onshoring support BDX’s double-digit biologics growth trajectory. Note: DHR flagged ~$100M+ of large chromatography resin shipments pushed from Q2/Q3 into 2027 due to customer timing — a reminder that large-order lumpiness can affect quarterly results. | Positive |
Danaher (DHR) | July 21, 2026 | China VBP / Diagnostics | China life sciences market conditions “continued to stabilize”; diagnostics improved sequentially as DHR began to move beyond the most significant YoY impact of VBP and reimbursement changes. Declines in China for Beckman Coulter Diagnostics began to moderate as pricing stabilized and volumes improved. China policy headwinds “starting to lessen,” contributing to a “little bit lower headwind in Q3 and Q4.” | Directly relevant. DHR’s China stabilization signal is a positive read-through for BDX’s China diagnostics and medical device businesses. Moderating VBP headwinds could provide upside to BDX’s guided mid-teens China decline. | Positive |
Danaher (DHR) | July 21, 2026 | Life Sciences / Biotech Funding | Investment from large pharma/biopharma “continued to strengthen”; biotech demand benefited from “more favorable funding environment.” Biotech funding “stronger” and starting to translate into orders and revenue for consumables. DHR expects Q3 core growth (ex-respiratory) of ~5%, an acceleration vs. Q2. | Positive for BDX’s BioPharma Systems and Biosciences segments. Stronger biotech funding translating to orders is a leading indicator for BDX’s consumables and reagent demand. | Positive |
Edwards Lifesciences (EW) | July 23, 2026 | Procedure Seasonality (Q3) | EW expects “normalized seasonality” in Q3 2026 (sequential decline from Q2), noting that Q3 2025 had “unusually low impact from seasonality.” EW does not expect “a very strong summer” like last year. Q3 underlying sales growth will be “artificially lower” than H1 performance due to tough comps. | Relevant caution for BDX. Normalized Q3 seasonality (typical summer slowdown in elective procedures) could weigh on BDX’s Interventional and Surgery segments. However, BDX’s consumables-heavy mix (~90%+) provides more insulation from seasonal procedure volume swings than capital-heavy peers. | Neutral / Slight Caution |
Edwards Lifesciences (EW) | July 23, 2026 | TAVR NCD / Procedure Expansion | EW anticipates finalization of the updated U.S. TAVR NCD in September 2026, with potential to expand TAVR indications (asymptomatic patients, streamlined access). EW expects “minimal impact in 2026” but views it as a “tailwind or potential catalyst” for 2027 and beyond. Surgical left atrial appendage technology (Eclipsis) major rollout planned for later in 2026. | Indirectly positive for BDX’s Interventional and Surgery segments. Expanded TAVR indications and new surgical procedure launches drive demand for BDX’s vascular access, surgical preparation (Chloraprep), and medication delivery products used in these procedures. | Positive (2027+) |
Boston Scientific (BSX) | July 29, 2026 | Overall Medtech Growth / Q3 Guidance | BSX guided Q3 2026 organic revenue growth of 3–5%, with no FX impact expected. BSX noted WATCHMAN (LAAC) market slowdown driven by clinical evidence impacting referral patterns and operational inefficiencies — expects global WATCHMAN to decline mid-to-high single digits in H2. EP business expected to be flat in H2 due to competitive pressures. | Mixed. BSX’s 3–5% Q3 organic growth guide is below BDX’s ~2.6% consensus but reflects BSX-specific headwinds (WATCHMAN, EP). The WATCHMAN slowdown (clinical evidence impacting referrals) is a broader caution on elective procedure adoption rates, but BDX’s portfolio is less exposed to these specific dynamics. | Mixed |
Boston Scientific (BSX) | July 29, 2026 | China / Asia Pacific | Asia Pacific grew 11% operationally in Q2, “led by double-digit growth in Japan, China, and Korea.” BSX expects continued international strength, particularly in Europe and Asia Pac where PFA penetration is lower. | Positive read-through for BDX’s China operations. Double-digit growth in China for a medtech peer suggests the market environment is not uniformly negative, and BDX’s VBP-affected portfolio may be stabilizing faster than feared. | Positive |
Boston Scientific (BSX) | July 29, 2026 | Diagnostics Demand | BSX’s Diagnostics franchise grew low-double digits in Q2 with “continued strength across our broad diagnostic portfolio,” implying a positive outlook for Q3. | Directly positive for BDX’s Diagnostic Solutions segment. Continued low-double digit growth in a peer’s diagnostics franchise signals healthy market demand. | Positive |
Stryker (SYK) | July 30, 2026 | Procedure Volumes / Utilization | U.S. procedural environment “remained stable”; SYK has “not observed meaningful changes in volume trends” despite some commentary on softness in discretionary procedures. Utilization rates across installed base “continue to trend upward.” Expects procedure environment to be “consistent”; any improvement would be a tailwind. Rescheduling of procedures expected to contribute more in Q3 and Q4. Fundamental drivers (aging population, chronic disease) “firmly in place.” | Directly positive for BDX. Stable-to-improving U.S. procedure volumes and upward-trending utilization rates support demand for BDX’s surgical, medical, and diagnostic consumables. SYK’s “zero cancellations” in capital order books is also a positive signal for BDX’s capital equipment pipeline (Alaris, Pyxis, APM). | Positive |
Stryker (SYK) | July 30, 2026 | Hospital Capital Spending | SYK exited Q2 with an “elevated backlog” and expects “continued strength in the hospital capital environment through the remainder of the year.” Capital demand “remains elevated” with strong orders and zero cancellations. Primary challenge is manufacturing/delivery speed, not demand. ASC trend continues with “steady growth.” | Directly positive for BDX’s capital equipment businesses (Alaris infusion pumps, Pyxis medication management, APM hemodynamic monitoring). Elevated hospital capital budgets and zero cancellations support BDX’s record Alaris competitive funnel and Pyxis Pro launch momentum. | Positive |
Stryker (SYK) | July 30, 2026 | Pricing | SYK’s full-year 2026 sales guidance reflects a “modestly positive pricing impact.” | Positive for BDX. A peer’s expectation of modestly positive pricing suggests a stable-to-favorable pricing environment in medtech, consistent with BDX’s own CPI-linked contract clauses and annual price increase discipline. | Positive |