{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Room Nights Growth (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~5.0% vs. cons ~3.5%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$7.40B vs. cons ~$7.30B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.58 vs. cons ~$2.46",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 Revenue Growth Guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~6%-8% vs. cons ~6.5% (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 Room Nights Growth Guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~4%-6% vs. cons ~4% (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EPS Growth Guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~13%-15% vs. cons ~14.6% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Middle East/Hormuz Conflict Drag Assumption",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~1-2pt drag vs. prior guide ~3pt drag (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Q2 likely beats a conservative, conflict-laden guide (management historically beats own ranges, per Q1's 'exceeded high end' commentary), sparking an initial pop as investors read through to Hormuz reopening. But the late-July Iraq/Jordan flare-up means management will likely keep Q3/H2 guidance only cautiously better rather than triumphantly raised, so sell-side EPS/revenue revisions for Q3-Q4 don't move up much even after the beat -- an implicit soft guide that lets the initial relief rally fade over the week as the market re-prices lingering geopolitical/Hormuz risk premium already reflected in the stock's round-trip from $201 back to $193.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}