| BR |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q4 FY26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.85 vs. cons $3.75 |
MEDIUM |
| BR |
Report |
Total Revenue (Q4 FY26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.20B vs. cons $2.17B |
MEDIUM |
| BR |
Report |
Closed Sales (Q4 FY26, $M) |
MISS |
pred ~$100M vs. cons (implied by FY guide) ~$120M |
LOW |
| BR |
Guide |
FY2027 Recurring Revenue Growth (CC) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~6-8% vs. cons ~7% (FY2027) |
LOW |
| BR |
Guide |
FY2027 Adjusted EPS Growth algorithm |
LOWER |
guide ~8-10% vs. cons ~11% (FY2027) |
MEDIUM |
| BR |
Guide |
FY2027 Closed Sales target ($M) |
LOWER |
guide ~$270M vs. cons ~$310M (FY2027) |
LOW |
| BR |
Guide |
Annual Dividend Increase (announced with Q4) |
LOWER |
guide ~7-8% increase vs. cons ~10% (FY2027, would be 20th consecutive annual increase) |
LOW |
| BR |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-4.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| BR |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-6.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Stock rallied ~16% off its June lows (vs. S&P +5%) into the print, pricing in hope that Q4's seasonally strong bookings quarter and FY27 outlook would validate the 'demand is fine, just timing' narrative. Our base case is a modest EPS/revenue beat but another closed-sales shortfall (sales-cycle elongation persisting into Q4) plus a cautious initial FY27 guide (EPS growth algorithm trimmed toward 8-10% from the prior double-digit framing, and a still-conservative bookings target) as management continues front-loading tokenization/AI/shareholder-engagement investment. That combination is the same setup that drove the Feb 2026 post-Q2 drawdown (~15% over two weeks) — bookings/guidance dominate the stock reaction far more than the trailing-quarter print. Expect an initial negative gap that a beat-driven headline doesn't fully offset, followed by sell-side model cuts to FY27 EPS/bookings over the following days as analysts true-up estimates to the softer out-year math, producing continued (not reversing) downside through day 5. |
MEDIUM |