CAT Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
CAT Report Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$6.45 vs. cons $6.20 MEDIUM
CAT Report Total revenue (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$19.6B vs. cons $19.2B MEDIUM
CAT Report Power & Energy segment sales (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$7.3B vs. cons ~$7.0B MEDIUM
CAT Guide Total backlog (end-Q2 2026) BETTER guide ~$66B vs. cons ~$63B (Q2-end, vs Q1 record $63B) MEDIUM
CAT Guide FY2026 sales growth outlook BETTER guide ~low-double-digit ~11% vs. cons ~10% (FY2026) MEDIUM
CAT Guide Q2 tariff cost headwind UNCHANGED guide ~$700M vs. cons ~$700M (Q2 2026) MEDIUM
CAT Guide Resource Industries segment margin LOWER guide ~10-11% vs. cons ~12% (Q2 2026, down Y/Y) MEDIUM
CAT Guide ME&T free cash flow BETTER guide >$9.5B vs. cons ~$9.5B (FY2026) LOW
CAT Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.5% MEDIUM
CAT Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.5% (FADE) Expect a relief rally on day 1: EPS/revenue beat plus a continued backlog build off the record $63B and reassuring data-center commentary against cooled, post-22%-pullback expectations. But the stock still trades ~33x FY26 EPS with an active AI/data-center regulatory overhang (Baird cut to $900), CI dealer-inventory tailwind reversing, ~$700M tariff drag and lower RI margins. Out-period math is only modestly accretive — a beat doesn't push FY estimates up much once CI normalization and tariffs are baked in — so the initial pop partially fades as profit-taking and valuation skepticism reassert into day 5. LOW