| CEG |
Report |
Q2'26 Adjusted (Operating) EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.35 vs. cons ~$2.30 |
MEDIUM |
| CEG |
Report |
Q2'26 Revenue (post-Calpine) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$8.4B vs. cons ~$8.3B |
LOW |
| CEG |
Report |
Nuclear fleet capacity factor / output (favorable outage comp vs 22 non-refuel days in Q2'25) |
BEAT |
pred ~95.5% vs. cons ~94.5% |
LOW |
| CEG |
Guide |
FY2026 adj. EPS guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide reaffirmed $11.00-$12.00 (~$11.60 midpoint bias-upper) vs. cons ~$11.74 (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| CEG |
Guide |
Marquee nuclear data-center PPA (Calvert Cliffs/Amazon) — the real catalyst |
UNKNOWN |
pred no signed deal, framework talk only vs. cons ~1 deal hoped (H2'26) |
MEDIUM |
| CEG |
Guide |
>20% base EPS CAGR through 2029 (supported by 18,875 MW cleared at ~$325 cap, ~$2.2B capacity rev) |
BETTER |
guide >20% CAGR reaffirmed/tilting up vs. cons ~20% (2024-2029) |
MEDIUM |
| CEG |
Guide |
Buyback pace at depressed price / $5B authorization |
BETTER |
guide accelerated repurchase in ~$260s vs. cons ~$335M/qtr prior pace (H2'26) |
MEDIUM |
| CEG |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.5% |
— |
LOW |
| CEG |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.5% (STABILIZE) |
Base case is a clean but low-drama EPS beat with a reaffirmed (not raised) FY guide and no signed marquee data-center PPA. Strong H1 run-rate (~$5.0 of $11-12) against only a reaffirm implies conservative/implicit H2 assumptions, capping upward revisions and creating mild fade risk. But the ~$325-cap PJM capacity clear, favorable summer dispatch/outage comp, aggressive buyback at ~$260s, and a still-far-above-spot sell-side target gap (~$360 vs ~$265) put a floor under the stock. Net: initial pop partially given back, settling roughly flat-to-slightly-positive on an idiosyncratic basis absent a catalyst headline. |
LOW |